Monitor
How far the S&P 500's total expected earnings and revenue moved on the latest read, for every series and window. A total is each company's consensus EPS times its share count, summed (revenue as reported); FY1 is 2026 and FY2 2027. Color deepens with the size of the move. Select a cell to set the window and series for the rest of the page.
| Series | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS FY1 | −0.00% | +0.09% | +0.29% | — |
| EPS FY2 | +0.09% | +0.20% | +0.78% | — |
| Revenue FY1 | +0.09% | +0.17% | +0.52% | — |
Trend
S&P 500 total expected 2026 earnings: each company's consensus EPS times its share count, summed, one number per day since 2026-09-17. Latest 2026-11-11: $3.19T across 494 names, +0.09% over 5 sessions.
2026-11-11 · S&P 500 2026 earnings $3.19T · +0.09% over 5 sessions (+$2.7B) · 155 raised · 72 lowered of 492 covered · net breadth +16.9%
By year · S&P 500 total earnings, 2004–2030, for today's members. 2004–2025: the last consensus on record for each completed year. 2026–2030: today's consensus. Years fewer companies list are chained on the ones that do.
2004 $466.4B → 2025 $2.34T → 2026 expected $3.19T → 2030 expected $6.11T
By basket, sector and factor
The same read for one thematic basket, sector or factor long book: its total expected earnings day by day, or with Measure on Breadth how many of its names moved.
Magnitude: Capital Markets Cycle's total expected 2026 earnings
Capital Markets Cycle's total expected 2026 earnings: each company's consensus EPS times its share count, summed, one number per day since 2026-09-17. Latest 2026-11-11: $136.4B across 25 names, +0.09% over 5 sessions.
2026-11-11 · Capital Markets Cycle 2026 earnings $136.4B · +0.09% over 5 sessions (+$126M) · net breadth +0.0%
By year · Capital Markets Cycle total earnings, 2000–2029, for today's members. 2000–2025: the last consensus on record for each completed year. 2026–2029: today's consensus. Years fewer companies list are chained on the ones that do.
2000 $9.5B → 2025 $107.7B → 2026 expected $136.4B → 2029 expected $173.1B
Breadth: how many names were revised
EPS FY1 consensus, 5-session window: Capital Markets Cycle net breadth per session, 103 reads since 2026-06-17. Latest 2026-11-11: 5 raised · 5 lowered of 25 covered.
2026-11-11 · Capital Markets Cycle · 5 raised · 5 lowered of 25 covered · net +0.0% · median revision +0.0% · mean (clipped ±10%) +0.2%
Biggest revisions
The largest relative changes in EPS FY1 consensus over the 5-session window ending 2026-11-11, each direction, among names with at least 3 analysts and a consensus base of at least $0.25 before the change.
Raised most
| Ticker | Company | Sector | Year | Consensus, before → after | Change | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPT | Camden Property Trust | Real Estate | FY2026 | 0.99 → 3.86 | +288.7% | 4 |
| SMCI | Super Micro Computer, Inc. | Technology | FY2027 | 5.51 → 6.42 | +16.6% | 11 |
| TKO | TKO Group Holdings, Inc. | Communication Services | FY2026 | 4.63 → 5.39 | +16.4% | 6 |
| COHR | Coherent, Inc. | Technology | FY2027 | 9.47 → 10.41 | +9.9% | 14 |
| ECHO | EchoStar Corporation | Communication Services | FY2026 | 26.15 → 28.68 | +9.7% | 3 |
| Q | Qnity Electronics, Inc. | Technology | FY2026 | 4.57 → 5.01 | +9.6% | 5 |
| DDOG | Datadog, Inc. | Technology | FY2026 | 2.54 → 2.75 | +8.5% | 25 |
| AIZ | Assurant, Inc. | Financial Services | FY2026 | 22.54 → 24.36 | +8.1% | 5 |
| ALL | The Allstate Corporation | Financial Services | FY2026 | 35.93 → 38.64 | +7.6% | 13 |
| SWKS | Skyworks Solutions, Inc. | Technology | FY2027 | 5.36 → 5.72 | +6.7% | 13 |
| SWK | Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. | Industrials | FY2027 | 5.61 → 5.93 | +5.7% | 9 |
| AFL | Aflac Incorporated | Financial Services | FY2026 | 7.02 → 7.40 | +5.3% | 8 |
| ANET | Arista Networks, Inc. | Technology | FY2026 | 4.14 → 4.35 | +5.0% | 17 |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | Technology | FY2026 | 7.67 → 8.04 | +4.8% | 30 |
| PODD | Insulet Corp. | Healthcare | FY2026 | 6.51 → 6.81 | +4.6% | 14 |
Lowered most
| Ticker | Company | Sector | Year | Consensus, before → after | Change | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOS | The Mosaic Company | Basic Materials | FY2026 | 0.34 → −0.48 | -241.1% | 7 |
| ARE | Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. | Real Estate | FY2026 | 0.78 → 0.05 | -93.6% | 3 |
| CHTR | Charter Communications, Inc. | Communication Services | FY2026 | 39.74 → 15.04 | -62.2% | 7 |
| LYV | Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. | Communication Services | FY2026 | −0.37 → −0.41 | -9.7% | 12 |
| SKYD | Skydance Corporation | Communication Services | FY2026 | 0.38 → 0.34 | -9.1% | 3 |
| MLM | Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. | Basic Materials | FY2026 | 17.19 → 15.89 | -7.6% | 8 |
| WYNN | Wynn Resorts, Limited | Consumer Cyclical | FY2026 | 4.19 → 3.91 | -6.8% | 11 |
| AXON | Axon Enterprise, Inc. | Industrials | FY2026 | 7.68 → 7.19 | -6.4% | 11 |
| PSA | Public Storage | Real Estate | FY2026 | 9.88 → 9.35 | -5.3% | 4 |
| FIS | Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. | Technology | FY2026 | 6.20 → 5.92 | -4.5% | 17 |
| VICI | VICI Properties Inc. | Real Estate | FY2026 | 2.58 → 2.49 | -3.5% | 5 |
| SW | Smurfit WestRock | Consumer Cyclical | FY2026 | 1.96 → 1.89 | -3.4% | 6 |
| GILD | Gilead Sciences, Inc. | Healthcare | FY2026 | −0.82 → −0.85 | -3.3% | 15 |
| FICO | Fair Isaac Corporation | Technology | FY2027 | 45.76 → 44.35 | -3.1% | 12 |
| TTWO | Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. | Technology | FY2027 | 7.03 → 6.82 | -3.1% | 11 |
Consensus vs priceThe consensus index against price for every portfolio
S&P 500: consensus EPS FY1 against price, both rebased to 100 at 2026-06-10, the first day both exist. The consensus index compounds the members' daily revisions over the book in force each day (cap-weighted); a fiscal-year roll or a membership change never moves it.
2026-11-11 · consensus EPS FY1 +7.7% · price +5.0% since 2026-06-10 · 492 covered names
Every portfolio over the period shown
Consensus, Price and their gap are measured over the same days: from the later of the period start and the portfolio's first consensus read. Price, period is the price change over the whole period shown, which matches the other pages.
| Portfolio | Group | Consensus EPS FY1 | Revenue FY1 | Price | Price − EPS | Price, period | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | Index | +7.7% | +7.3% | +5.0% | −2.7 pts | +5.0% | 492 |
| Momentum long book | Factor long books | +15.7% | +11.6% | -5.7% | −21.4 pts | -5.7% | 100 |
| Value long book | Factor long books | +4.5% | +0.9% | +10.8% | +6.3 pts | +10.8% | 97 |
| Quality long book | Factor long books | +8.8% | +8.7% | +6.8% | −2.0 pts | +6.8% | 97 |
| Size long book | Factor long books | +0.3% | +1.0% | +13.5% | +13.2 pts | +13.5% | 95 |
| Low vol long book | Factor long books | +2.4% | +2.3% | +10.8% | +8.4 pts | +10.8% | 98 |
| High beta long book | Factor long books | +15.8% | +13.5% | -4.7% | −20.4 pts | -4.7% | 100 |
| Div yield long book | Factor long books | +0.4% | +1.3% | +10.5% | +10.1 pts | +10.5% | 97 |
| Basic Materials | Sectors | -0.9% | +0.5% | +7.3% | +8.3 pts | +7.3% | 21 |
| Communication Services | Sectors | -2.9% | +5.3% | -8.9% | −6.1 pts | -8.9% | 18 |
| Consumer Cyclical | Sectors | +2.3% | +1.9% | +8.0% | +5.7 pts | +8.0% | 51 |
| Consumer Defensive | Sectors | -1.1% | +0.3% | +8.9% | +10.0 pts | +8.9% | 31 |
| Energy | Sectors | +15.9% | +9.9% | +10.1% | −5.8 pts | +10.1% | 21 |
| Financial Services | Sectors | +5.9% | +2.4% | +11.2% | +5.3 pts | +11.2% | 68 |
| Healthcare | Sectors | +0.5% | +2.4% | +24.7% | +24.2 pts | +24.7% | 59 |
| Industrials | Sectors | +3.1% | +3.4% | +2.5% | −0.6 pts | +2.5% | 75 |
| Real Estate | Sectors | -0.2% | +3.4% | +1.4% | +1.5 pts | +1.4% | 28 |
| Technology | Sectors | +17.3% | +14.6% | +1.9% | −15.5 pts | +1.9% | 89 |
| Utilities | Sectors | +0.1% | +0.4% | -0.0% | −0.1 pts | -0.0% | 30 |
| AI Displacement Risk | Baskets | +2.6% | +0.5% | +35.9% | +33.3 pts | +35.9% | 6 |
| AI Infrastructure Leaders | Baskets | +30.2% | +20.2% | -12.9% | −43.1 pts | -12.9% | 22 |
| AI Software & Platforms | Baskets | +1.0% | +2.0% | +11.9% | +10.9 pts | +11.9% | 15 |
| Cybersecurity | Baskets | -4.3% | +3.2% | +6.9% | +11.2 pts | +6.9% | 6 |
| Memory & Storage | Baskets | +16.3% | +9.9% | -24.0% | −40.3 pts | -27.5% | 4 |
| Optical Interconnect | Baskets | +23.0% | +11.1% | -17.4% | −40.4 pts | -26.6% | 4 |
| Retail | Baskets | -0.8% | +0.1% | +13.0% | +13.7 pts | +13.0% | 22 |
| Travel & Experiences | Baskets | -4.1% | +0.1% | +8.9% | +13.0 pts | +8.9% | 16 |
| Nuclear Renaissance | Baskets | -1.7% | -0.3% | -9.0% | −7.3 pts | +0.9% | 4 |
| Power & Grid Buildout | Baskets | +3.7% | +3.4% | -3.4% | −7.1 pts | -3.4% | 13 |
| US Energy Complex | Baskets | +13.9% | +6.5% | +6.4% | −7.5 pts | +6.4% | 20 |
| Capital Markets Cycle | Baskets | +6.5% | +3.5% | +11.3% | +4.7 pts | +11.3% | 25 |
| Crypto Financialization | Baskets | +29.0% | -2.0% | -1.6% | −30.7 pts | +18.2% | 4 |
| Payments & Fintech | Baskets | +7.8% | -1.5% | +22.1% | +14.3 pts | +22.1% | 13 |
| Regional Banks | Baskets | +0.1% | +0.4% | +1.5% | +1.3 pts | +1.5% | 9 |
| GLP-1 Pressure | Baskets | -1.1% | -1.5% | +7.4% | +8.4 pts | +7.4% | 16 |
| Hospitals & Providers | Baskets | -0.6% | +0.7% | +19.8% | +20.4 pts | +26.6% | 5 |
| Managed Care & Health Insurers | Baskets | +7.6% | +1.6% | +5.5% | −2.1 pts | +5.5% | 6 |
| Defense & Aerospace | Baskets | +0.2% | +3.4% | +4.6% | +4.4 pts | +4.6% | 14 |
| Reshoring & Industrial Capex | Baskets | +2.0% | +0.8% | +5.0% | +3.0 pts | +5.0% | 17 |
| Space Economy | Baskets | -6.0% | +1.2% | +6.3% | +12.3 pts | +4.7% | 7 |
| Commodity Producers | Baskets | -0.4% | +2.6% | -6.5% | −6.1 pts | +1.4% | 19 |
| Defensives | Baskets | -0.3% | +0.4% | +8.8% | +9.1 pts | +8.8% | 24 |
| Fortress Balance Sheets | Baskets | +5.1% | +6.3% | +10.7% | +5.6 pts | +10.7% | 20 |
| Homebuilders | Baskets | -13.5% | -6.0% | +0.9% | +14.4 pts | +0.5% | 4 |
| Housing Chain | Baskets | -4.8% | -1.4% | +8.0% | +12.8 pts | +8.0% | 14 |
| Magnificent Seven | Baskets | +5.9% | +8.5% | +8.3% | +2.4 pts | +8.3% | 7 |
Where the revisions areBreadth inside each factor quintile, sector and basket
The same breadth inside each factor's top and bottom quintile (committed membership from the latest monthly rebalance), inside each sector and inside each thematic basket (current members), for the selected series and window. A positive top − bottom gap means analysts agree with the factor.
By factor quintile
By sector
| Sector | Raised | Lowered | Covered | Net breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | 12 | 0 | 21 | +57.1% |
| Healthcare | 26 | 6 | 59 | +33.9% |
| Utilities | 10 | 1 | 30 | +30.0% |
| Technology | 30 | 8 | 88 | +25.0% |
| Industrials | 25 | 11 | 75 | +18.7% |
| Financial Services | 17 | 6 | 68 | +16.2% |
| Consumer Cyclical | 13 | 11 | 51 | +3.9% |
| Consumer Defensive | 4 | 4 | 31 | +0.0% |
| Real Estate | 8 | 10 | 29 | -6.9% |
| Communication Services | 5 | 7 | 18 | -11.1% |
| Basic Materials | 5 | 8 | 21 | -14.3% |
By basket
| Basket | Category | Raised | Lowered | Covered | Net breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Optical Interconnect | AI & Technology | 3 | 0 | 4 | +75.0% |
| US Energy Complex | Energy & Power | 12 | 0 | 20 | +60.0% |
| Payments & Fintech | Financials | 8 | 1 | 13 | +53.8% |
| Memory & Storage | AI & Technology | 2 | 0 | 4 | +50.0% |
| Managed Care & Health Insurers | Health | 3 | 0 | 6 | +50.0% |
| Reshoring & Industrial Capex | Industrials & Defense | 11 | 3 | 17 | +47.1% |
| AI Infrastructure Leaders | AI & Technology | 8 | 0 | 22 | +36.4% |
| Power & Grid Buildout | Energy & Power | 6 | 2 | 13 | +30.8% |
| Commodity Producers | Macro & Rates | 10 | 4 | 20 | +30.0% |
| Defense & Aerospace | Industrials & Defense | 6 | 2 | 14 | +28.6% |
| Space Economy | Industrials & Defense | 2 | 0 | 7 | +28.6% |
| Nuclear Renaissance | Energy & Power | 2 | 1 | 4 | +25.0% |
| Crypto Financialization | Financials | 2 | 1 | 4 | +25.0% |
| AI Displacement Risk | AI & Technology | 2 | 1 | 6 | +16.7% |
| Fortress Balance Sheets | Macro & Rates | 7 | 4 | 20 | +15.0% |
| Retail | Consumer | 3 | 0 | 22 | +13.6% |
| AI Software & Platforms | AI & Technology | 4 | 2 | 15 | +13.3% |
| Defensives | Macro & Rates | 4 | 2 | 24 | +8.3% |
| Travel & Experiences | Consumer | 5 | 4 | 16 | +6.3% |
| GLP-1 Pressure | Health | 3 | 2 | 16 | +6.3% |
| Capital Markets Cycle | Financials | 5 | 5 | 25 | +0.0% |
| Regional Banks | Financials | 0 | 0 | 9 | +0.0% |
| Hospitals & Providers | Health | 1 | 1 | 5 | +0.0% |
| Housing Chain | Macro & Rates | 3 | 3 | 14 | +0.0% |
| Cybersecurity | AI & Technology | 0 | 2 | 6 | -33.3% |
| Magnificent Seven | Reference | 0 | 3 | 7 | -42.9% |
| Homebuilders | Macro & Rates | 0 | 2 | 4 | -50.0% |
CoverageWhat the archive holds on the latest snapshot
What the archive holds on the latest snapshot, and the slow-moving context behind the reads: which fiscal year "FY1" is for these names, how many analysts stand behind a consensus, and how far apart they sit.
| Measure | Latest snapshot |
|---|---|
| Snapshots | 108 sessions since 2026-06-10 |
| Names with estimates | 500 · FY1 open for 500 · FY2 for 499 |
| Covered by 3+ analysts (FY1 EPS) | 494 · median 12 analysts |
| Fiscal year behind “FY1” | FY2026 378 · FY2027 122 |
| Share counts behind the totals | 500 of 500 names · 497 from consensus net income ÷ EPS · 3 from market cap ÷ last price |
| Analyst coverage, 5 sessions | 112 names gained analysts · 84 lost · of 498 |
| Estimate dispersion (FY1 EPS) | 4.4% median high − low as a share of consensus · 15.5% at 2026-06-10 |
DefinitionsNet breadth, Window, Series, percentiles and the consensus index
How each read on this page is built. Full spec: methodology §14.
- Net revision breadth
- Share of covered names whose consensus rose by at least 0.1% minus the share whose consensus fell by at least that, between two snapshots a Window apart. Names covered by fewer than three analysts are excluded; a fiscal-year roll is never counted as a revision.
- Window
- Sessions between the two consensus reads: 1, 5, 20 or 60. A wider window catches slower revisions and reads higher in absolute terms, so compare a read with its own window's history, not across windows. The trend chart's Period only sets how much history is shown.
- Series
- EPS FY1 is the consensus for the nearest fiscal year still open on the snapshot date, EPS FY2 the year after it, Revenue FY1 the same year's revenue consensus. The Coverage section shows which calendar years FY1 currently maps to.
- Median and mean revision
- The median relative change across covered names, and the mean with each name clipped at ±10% so a near-zero base cannot dominate. Breadth counts names; these measure distance.
- Percentile
- Where the latest read ranks among all reads of the same series and window so far, quoted once 40 reads exist. The archive began 2026-06-10, so this is a young distribution.
- Consensus index (vs price)
- Period sets the span of the chart; the price line runs back through it while the consensus line begins where the archive does, and both are rebased to 100 on the first day they share. For each portfolio, the members' relative consensus changes between consecutive snapshots, averaged with the portfolio's own weights (cap-weighted for the index, sectors and factor long books, with the long books' 5% single-name cap; equal-weighted baskets) over the book in force that day, and compounded from 100. Membership follows the basket add and remove dates and the factor rebalance history, so editing a basket re-dates its series automatically. It measures revisions only: a fiscal-year roll or a membership change never moves it. Price is the same portfolio's committed return series, both rebased to 100 at the first day of the period. EPS names within ±$0.25 of zero sit out of the average that day and single-name changes are capped at ±50%; the revenue index carries every covered name.
- Magnitude
- How far estimates moved, not how many names. Every group — the index, a sector, a factor long book, a basket — has one number per day: its total expected earnings for a calendar year, each company's consensus EPS times its share count, summed (revenue is summed as reported). Magnitude is the change in that total over the window, as a percentage of where it stood. The share count is market cap over the last price, held fixed, so the whole history since June 2026 is totalled from the EPS the archive has stored all along; a split restates the earlier per-share figures. To keep the line comparable, a day's step counts only the companies with that year's estimate on both days, so a name entering or leaving coverage or the group never moves it, and one name's one-day change is capped at half its own earlier value against a bad vendor print. The line starts once the names in both reads hold half of the group. Year picks the calendar year (a fiscal year ending January to May counts in the year before): FY1 reads the current year and FY2 the next; the archive has held the year after since June 2026 and the two near years since 2026-09-17. A group whose profits and losses largely offset shows the dollar change, with no percentage.
- By year
- The same total for each calendar year, under every daily line. The daily history is months long; the vendor also lists every fiscal year a company has carried, back to the 1990s, with the last consensus on record for it, and Factor Watch keeps those completed years in one file refreshed monthly. That is how the strip reaches back decades. Completed years are solid, the years ahead lighter; point at a bar for its figure, its growth on the year before and the companies behind it. A completed year's earnings are each company's consensus net income for that year (EPS times its share count where the record has none), for today's members: companies that have left the group are not in its past, and one that joined is. A year fewer companies list is chained from its neighbor on the companies with both, and joins only while those hold half of the group. The vendor's older figures contain errors a sum cannot absorb, so a company-year sits out when it is implausible: net income and EPS that disagree in sign or imply a share count ten times off, earnings beyond three times the company's market value, revenue five times its present size or three times both neighboring years.
- Net breadth by basket and sector
- The same read inside one thematic basket or sector on every session: its covered names raised minus lowered, for the selected series and window. A basket reads over the members in force that day, so it starts on its creation date; sectors follow today's classification in the universe file. A session where a basket has fewer than three covered names, or a sector fewer than five, is left blank.
- Factor quintiles, sectors and baskets
- Breadth inside each factor's top and bottom quintile as committed at the latest monthly rebalance, inside each sector with at least five covered names, and inside each thematic basket's current members with at least three covered names (ETF allocations carry no estimates). Top − bottom is in percentage points. Small baskets swing on a name or two; the covered count is beside every read.
- Biggest revisions
- The largest relative consensus changes in the latest read, each direction. EPS names whose consensus before the change was within ±$0.25 of zero are left out: a few cents on a near-zero base is a rounding story.
- Sources and caveats
- Consensus levels come from the vendor's estimate aggregation and can move when analysts are added or dropped, not only when targets change; the thresholds damp but do not remove this. Full spec: methodology §14.