Estimate revisions

as of 2026-09-18

Analysts raised FY1 EPS for 83 and lowered it for 64 of 486 covered S&P 500 names over 5 sessions — net breadth +3.9% (26th percentile of the series so far) · 20-session breadth +6.4% · upgrades broadest in Energy (+28.6%) · among baskets, Magnificent Seven (+71.4% of 7 covered) · Momentum top quintile +27.6% vs bottom -8.3%.

How to read this page
How to read this page

Every market day Factor Watch stores the analyst consensus for every constituent — a series nobody sells and nobody can backfill. Net revision breadth is the share of covered names whose consensus was raised minus the share lowered between two reads a Window apart, matched on the same fiscal year and counting only names with three or more analysts. FY1 is the nearest fiscal year still open on the snapshot date, FY2 the one after it. Breadth says how many names moved; the median and mean revision beside it say how far. Definitions: methodology §14.

Window

Revision monitor

Net revision breadth on the latest read, for every series and window: the share of covered names raised minus the share lowered. Color deepens with the size of the read; each cell carries its raised and lowered counts and where the read sits in the series so far. Select a cell to set the window and series below.

Series1d5d20d60d
EPS FY1-0.2%+3.9%+6.4%+33.1%
EPS FY2-1.0%-2.6%+1.4%+29.0%
Revenue FY1-0.2%+6.5%+9.8%+33.3%

Net breadth over time

EPS FY1 consensus, 5-session window: net breadth per session, 66 reads since 2026-06-17. Latest 2026-09-18: 83 raised · 64 lowered of 486 covered.

Period
2026-06-17: net +9% (82↑ / 38↓ of 474)2026-06-18: net +11% (90↑ / 40↓ of 474)2026-06-22: net +11% (111↑ / 58↓ of 476)2026-06-23: net +9% (94↑ / 53↓ of 481)2026-06-24: net +10% (111↑ / 62↓ of 479)2026-06-25: net +11% (112↑ / 59↓ of 478)2026-06-26: net +11% (105↑ / 54↓ of 478)2026-06-29: net +12% (114↑ / 59↓ of 474)2026-06-30: net +12% (117↑ / 60↓ of 474)2026-07-01: net +10% (102↑ / 55↓ of 475)2026-07-02: net +10% (104↑ / 58↓ of 475)2026-07-03: net +10% (116↑ / 68↓ of 476)2026-07-06: net +6% (98↑ / 70↓ of 476)2026-07-07: net +6% (98↑ / 67↓ of 477)2026-07-08: net +6% (102↑ / 71↓ of 477)2026-07-09: net +7% (107↑ / 73↓ of 478)2026-07-10: net +12% (131↑ / 73↓ of 478)2026-07-13: net +13% (144↑ / 82↓ of 478)2026-07-14: net +14% (150↑ / 84↓ of 478)2026-07-15: net +15% (157↑ / 87↓ of 478)2026-07-16: net +12% (161↑ / 105↓ of 473)2026-07-17: net +5% (139↑ / 114↓ of 473)2026-07-20: net +7% (146↑ / 114↓ of 475)2026-07-21: net +7% (137↑ / 104↓ of 475)2026-07-22: net +8% (144↑ / 106↓ of 471)2026-07-23: net +8% (129↑ / 92↓ of 474)2026-07-24: net +11% (139↑ / 86↓ of 474)2026-07-27: net +14% (158↑ / 94↓ of 473)2026-07-28: net +14% (167↑ / 99↓ of 474)2026-07-29: net +14% (174↑ / 105↓ of 477)2026-07-30: net +17% (185↑ / 105↓ of 477)2026-07-31: net +18% (195↑ / 108↓ of 478)2026-08-04: net +17% (175↑ / 96↓ of 478)2026-08-05: net +16% (171↑ / 95↓ of 478)2026-08-06: net +13% (150↑ / 88↓ of 481)2026-08-07: net +18% (180↑ / 95↓ of 481)2026-08-10: net +17% (155↑ / 71↓ of 481)2026-08-11: net +11% (86↑ / 33↓ of 480)2026-08-12: net +11% (86↑ / 33↓ of 479)2026-08-13: net +11% (86↑ / 33↓ of 479)2026-08-14: net -0% (0↑ / 1↓ of 483)2026-08-17: net -0% (0↑ / 1↓ of 483)2026-08-18: net -0% (0↑ / 1↓ of 483)2026-08-19: net -0% (0↑ / 1↓ of 484)2026-08-20: net +21% (202↑ / 103↓ of 477)2026-08-21: net +24% (229↑ / 115↓ of 478)2026-08-24: net +23% (228↑ / 118↓ of 478)2026-08-25: net +24% (231↑ / 118↓ of 478)2026-08-26: net +24% (231↑ / 116↓ of 478)2026-08-27: net +4% (87↑ / 68↓ of 485)2026-08-28: net +0% (53↑ / 52↓ of 485)2026-08-31: net +3% (66↑ / 50↓ of 485)2026-09-01: net +3% (60↑ / 45↓ of 485)2026-09-02: net +4% (65↑ / 47↓ of 484)2026-09-03: net +4% (79↑ / 61↓ of 483)2026-09-04: net +5% (90↑ / 66↓ of 481)2026-09-07: net +1% (71↑ / 65↓ of 483)2026-09-08: net +1% (70↑ / 64↓ of 483)2026-09-09: net +1% (76↑ / 70↓ of 485)2026-09-10: net +3% (76↑ / 62↓ of 483)2026-09-11: net +2% (76↑ / 65↓ of 482)2026-09-14: net +4% (83↑ / 62↓ of 480)2026-09-15: net +4% (90↑ / 70↓ of 479)2026-09-16: net +3% (91↑ / 76↓ of 480)2026-09-17: net +3% (91↑ / 77↓ of 486)2026-09-18: net +4% (83↑ / 64↓ of 486)
2026-06-17net breadth, ±24%2026-09-18

2026-09-18 · 83 raised · 64 lowered of 486 covered · net +3.9% · median revision +0.0% · mean (clipped ±10%) +0.1%

Consensus vs price

S&P 500: consensus EPS FY1 against price, both rebased to 100 at 2026-06-10, the first day both exist. The consensus index compounds the members' daily revisions over the book in force each day (cap-weighted); a fiscal-year roll or a membership change never moves it.

Period
2026-06-10rebased to 100 at 2026-06-102026-09-18
Consensus EPS FY1+7.6%Price+5.4%

2026-09-18 · consensus EPS FY1 +7.6% · price +5.4% since 2026-06-10 · 497 covered names

Every portfolio over the period shown

Consensus, Price and their gap are measured over the same days: from the later of the period start and the portfolio's first consensus read. Price, period is the price change over the whole period shown, which matches the other pages.

PortfolioGroupConsensus EPS FY1Revenue FY1PricePrice − EPSPrice, periodCovered
S&P 500Index+7.6%+6.6%+5.4%−2.2 pts+5.4%497
Momentum long bookFactor long books+9.9%+8.7%+3.1%−6.7 pts+3.1%100
Value long bookFactor long books+3.5%+0.6%+7.1%+3.6 pts+7.1%99
Quality long bookFactor long books+9.0%+7.8%+6.2%−2.8 pts+6.2%98
Size long bookFactor long books+0.5%+0.5%+5.2%+4.8 pts+5.2%99
Low vol long bookFactor long books+2.0%+1.6%+2.0%+0.1 pts+2.0%99
High beta long bookFactor long books+13.0%+12.1%+4.6%−8.4 pts+4.6%100
Div yield long bookFactor long books+0.3%+0.5%+2.8%+2.5 pts+2.8%100
Basic MaterialsSectors-0.1%-0.3%+1.3%+1.4 pts+1.3%23
Communication ServicesSectors-1.9%+1.1%+2.1%+3.9 pts+2.1%20
Consumer CyclicalSectors+2.8%+1.8%-0.5%−3.3 pts-0.5%51
Consumer DefensiveSectors-1.2%-0.2%-3.7%−2.5 pts-3.7%32
EnergySectors+3.4%+3.9%+11.0%+7.6 pts+11.0%21
Financial ServicesSectors+4.7%+2.2%+7.3%+2.6 pts+7.3%68
HealthcareSectors+1.9%+1.3%+10.6%+8.7 pts+10.6%58
IndustrialsSectors+3.4%+2.0%+0.6%−2.9 pts+0.6%74
Real EstateSectors-0.5%+2.4%-4.0%−3.5 pts-4.0%30
TechnologySectors+16.0%+14.0%+9.4%−6.7 pts+9.4%87
UtilitiesSectors-0.4%+0.4%-3.8%−3.4 pts-3.8%30
AI Displacement RiskBaskets+1.8%-0.5%+15.2%+13.5 pts+15.2%6
AI Infrastructure LeadersBaskets+18.8%+16.0%+3.2%−15.6 pts+3.2%22
AI Software & PlatformsBaskets+0.5%+1.2%+7.5%+7.0 pts+7.5%15
CybersecurityBaskets-4.6%+3.0%+15.4%+20.0 pts+15.4%6
Memory & StorageBaskets+3.7%+2.7%+13.3%+9.6 pts+8.2%4
Optical InterconnectBaskets+15.8%+7.9%+6.2%−9.6 pts-5.6%4
RetailBaskets-0.7%-0.1%-0.3%+0.4 pts-0.3%22
Travel & ExperiencesBaskets+1.2%+0.2%-3.2%−4.5 pts-3.2%16
Nuclear RenaissanceBaskets-2.7%-0.2%-7.9%−5.1 pts+2.1%4
Power & Grid BuildoutBaskets+2.5%+3.1%-0.7%−3.1 pts-0.7%13
US Energy ComplexBaskets+4.8%+2.3%+9.3%+4.5 pts+9.3%20
Capital Markets CycleBaskets+5.2%+2.5%+7.2%+2.0 pts+7.2%25
Crypto FinancializationBaskets-3.6%-2.0%+8.7%+12.3 pts+30.6%4
Payments & FintechBaskets-2.7%-1.4%+13.9%+16.6 pts+13.9%13
Regional BanksBaskets+1.2%+0.5%+0.5%−0.7 pts+0.5%9
GLP-1 PressureBaskets-1.7%-1.3%-0.6%+1.1 pts-0.6%17
Hospitals & ProvidersBaskets-1.1%+0.2%+8.7%+9.8 pts+14.8%5
Managed Care & Health InsurersBaskets+3.2%+0.6%-2.0%−5.3 pts-2.0%6
Defense & AerospaceBaskets+3.2%+2.7%+1.1%−2.1 pts+1.1%14
Reshoring & Industrial CapexBaskets+1.8%-0.8%-1.5%−3.4 pts-1.5%17
Space EconomyBaskets+1.6%+1.1%+1.0%−0.6 pts-0.5%7
Commodity ProducersBaskets+0.5%-0.0%-3.8%−4.3 pts+4.3%20
DefensivesBaskets-0.4%-0.3%-0.6%−0.2 pts-0.6%24
Fortress Balance SheetsBaskets+2.7%+4.7%+6.9%+4.2 pts+6.9%20
HomebuildersBaskets-0.0%-0.6%-5.3%−5.3 pts-5.7%4
Housing ChainBaskets-2.5%-0.3%-4.4%−1.8 pts-4.4%15
Magnificent SevenBaskets+7.7%+7.8%+11.0%+3.3 pts+11.0%7

Where the revisions are

The same breadth inside each factor's top and bottom quintile (committed membership from the latest monthly rebalance), inside each sector and inside each thematic basket (current members), for the selected series and window. A positive top − bottom gap means analysts agree with the factor.

By factor quintile

FactorTop quintileBottom quintileTop − bottom
Momentum+27.6%-8.3%+35.8 pts
High beta+17.3%+3.2%+14.2 pts
Quality+6.3%+7.1%−0.9 pts
Size+5.3%+15.2%−9.9 pts
Low vol+2.1%+14.7%−12.7 pts
Value-6.3%+17.3%−23.6 pts
Div yield-11.2%+9.2%−20.4 pts

By sector

SectorRaisedLoweredCoveredNet breadth
Energy10421+28.6%
Technology22486+20.9%
Communication Services7419+15.8%
Consumer Cyclical9551+7.8%
Healthcare9755+3.6%
Financial Services4368+1.5%
Basic Materials7723+0.0%
Utilities1129+0.0%
Industrials121472-2.8%
Real Estate2529-10.3%
Consumer Defensive0930-30.0%

By basket

BasketCategoryRaisedLoweredCoveredNet breadth
Magnificent SevenReference507+71.4%
Memory & StorageAI & Technology204+50.0%
Optical InterconnectAI & Technology204+50.0%
Commodity ProducersMacro & Rates10119+47.4%
AI Infrastructure LeadersAI & Technology8021+38.1%
AI Displacement RiskAI & Technology206+33.3%
CybersecurityAI & Technology206+33.3%
US Energy ComplexEnergy & Power10420+30.0%
Space EconomyIndustrials & Defense217+14.3%
AI Software & PlatformsAI & Technology5315+13.3%
Payments & FintechFinancials1013+7.7%
Power & Grid BuildoutEnergy & Power2213+0.0%
Capital Markets CycleFinancials1125+0.0%
Crypto FinancializationFinancials004+0.0%
Hospitals & ProvidersHealth115+0.0%
Fortress Balance SheetsMacro & Rates3320+0.0%
RetailConsumer1222-4.5%
Travel & ExperiencesConsumer2316-6.3%
Defense & AerospaceIndustrials & Defense3414-7.1%
DefensivesMacro & Rates2422-9.1%
Regional BanksFinancials019-11.1%
Reshoring & Industrial CapexIndustrials & Defense2417-11.8%
Managed Care & Health InsurersHealth126-16.7%
Nuclear RenaissanceEnergy & Power014-25.0%
HomebuildersMacro & Rates014-25.0%
Housing ChainMacro & Rates0415-26.7%
GLP-1 PressureHealth0517-29.4%

Biggest revisions

The largest relative changes in EPS FY1 consensus over the 5-session window ending 2026-09-18, each direction, among names with at least 3 analysts and a consensus base of at least $0.25 before the change.

Raised most

TickerCompanySectorYearConsensus, before → afterChangeAnalysts
ECHOEchoStar CorporationCommunication ServicesFY20283.02 → 3.30+9.1%7
MOSThe Mosaic CompanyBasic MaterialsFY20281.94 → 2.06+6.5%4
GNRCGenerac Holdings Inc.IndustrialsFY202814.14 → 14.89+5.4%8
APAAPA CorporationEnergyFY20284.04 → 4.24+4.8%8
OXYOccidental Petroleum CorporationEnergyFY20284.02 → 4.16+3.4%7
MPCMarathon Petroleum CorporationEnergyFY202822.33 → 23.07+3.3%5
GMGeneral Motors CompanyConsumer CyclicalFY202816.21 → 16.73+3.2%6
STLDSteel Dynamics, Inc.Basic MaterialsFY202719.59 → 20.07+2.4%8
FFord Motor CompanyConsumer CyclicalFY20282.16 → 2.21+2.1%5
PSXPhillips 66EnergyFY202819.23 → 19.58+1.8%4
CFCF Industries Holdings, Inc.Basic MaterialsFY20288.51 → 8.67+1.8%5
AVGOBroadcom Inc.TechnologyFY202830.05 → 30.58+1.8%15
NUENucor CorporationBasic MaterialsFY202818.38 → 18.69+1.7%6
VLOValero Energy CorporationEnergyFY202826.02 → 26.45+1.6%4
LUVSouthwest Airlines Co.IndustrialsFY20285.35 → 5.43+1.4%8

Lowered most

TickerCompanySectorYearConsensus, before → afterChangeAnalysts
INTUIntuit Inc.TechnologyFY202827.38 → 26.45-3.4%19
SPGSimon Property Group, Inc.Real EstateFY20287.61 → 7.42-2.5%5
NKENIKE, Inc.Consumer CyclicalFY20292.38 → 2.32-2.5%15
DVNDevon Energy CorporationEnergyFY20285.78 → 5.65-2.3%9
LULULululemon AthleticaConsumer CyclicalFY20288.60 → 8.42-2.1%21
CPRTCopart, Inc.IndustrialsFY20281.81 → 1.77-2.0%6
MLMMartin Marietta Materials, Inc.Basic MaterialsFY202825.32 → 24.86-1.8%3
DOWDow Inc.Basic MaterialsFY20262.46 → 2.42-1.6%10
UDRUDR, Inc.Real EstateFY20280.67 → 0.65-1.6%4
TSNTyson Foods, Inc.Consumer DefensiveFY20274.28 → 4.22-1.4%7
HBANHuntington Bancshares IncorporatedFinancial ServicesFY20271.87 → 1.85-1.0%8
KRThe Kroger Co.Consumer DefensiveFY20295.87 → 5.81-1.0%6
BLDRBuilders FirstSource, Inc.Basic MaterialsFY20274.49 → 4.45-1.0%12
CMCSAComcast CorporationCommunication ServicesFY20283.91 → 3.87-0.9%10
DASHDoorDash, Inc.Communication ServicesFY20287.27 → 7.22-0.6%22

Coverage

What the archive holds on the latest snapshot, and the slow-moving context behind the reads: which fiscal year "FY1" is for these names, how many analysts stand behind a consensus, and how far apart they sit.

MeasureLatest snapshot
Snapshots71 sessions since 2026-06-10
Names with estimates500 · FY1 open for 500 · FY2 for 499
Covered by 3+ analysts (FY1 EPS)497 · median 12 analysts
Fiscal year behind “FY1”FY2026 416 · FY2027 84
Analyst coverage, 5 sessions59 names gained analysts · 23 lost · of 500
Estimate dispersion (FY1 EPS)4.6% median high − low as a share of consensus · 15.5% at 2026-06-10

Reading this page

Net revision breadth
Share of covered names whose consensus rose by at least 0.1% minus the share whose consensus fell by at least that, between two snapshots a Window apart. Names covered by fewer than three analysts are excluded; a fiscal-year roll is never counted as a revision.
Window
Sessions between the two consensus reads: 1, 5, 20 or 60. A wider window catches slower revisions and reads higher in absolute terms, so compare a read with its own window's history, not across windows. The trend chart's Period only sets how much history is shown.
Series
EPS FY1 is the consensus for the nearest fiscal year still open on the snapshot date, EPS FY2 the year after it, Revenue FY1 the same year's revenue consensus. The Coverage section shows which calendar years FY1 currently maps to.
Median and mean revision
The median relative change across covered names, and the mean with each name clipped at ±10% so a near-zero base cannot dominate. Breadth counts names; these measure distance.
Percentile
Where the latest read ranks among all reads of the same series and window so far, quoted once 40 reads exist. The archive began 2026-06-10, so this is a young distribution.
Consensus index (vs price)
Period sets the span of the chart; the price line runs back through it while the consensus line begins where the archive does, and both are rebased to 100 on the first day they share. For each portfolio, the members' relative consensus changes between consecutive snapshots, averaged with the portfolio's own weights (cap-weighted for the index, sectors and factor long books, with the long books' 5% single-name cap; equal-weighted baskets) over the book in force that day, and compounded from 100. Membership follows the basket add and remove dates and the factor rebalance history, so editing a basket re-dates its series automatically. It measures revisions only: a fiscal-year roll or a membership change never moves it. Price is the same portfolio's committed return series, both rebased to 100 at the first day of the period. EPS names within ±$0.25 of zero sit out of the average that day and single-name changes are capped at ±50%; the revenue index carries every covered name.
Factor quintiles, sectors and baskets
Breadth inside each factor's top and bottom quintile as committed at the latest monthly rebalance, inside each sector with at least five covered names, and inside each thematic basket's current members with at least three covered names (ETF allocations carry no estimates). Top − bottom is in percentage points. Small baskets swing on a name or two; the covered count is beside every read.
Biggest revisions
The largest relative consensus changes in the latest read, each direction. EPS names whose consensus before the change was within ±$0.25 of zero are left out: a few cents on a near-zero base is a rounding story.
Sources and caveats
Consensus levels come from the vendor's estimate aggregation and can move when analysts are added or dropped, not only when targets change; the thresholds damp but do not remove this. Full spec: methodology §14.