Defense & Aerospace
Rearmament as a secular budget line: primes, shipbuilding, aero suppliers, defense IT and software, and the commercial aero duopoly’s troubled half. Geopolitical risk-on basket — it works when nothing else does.
Orbit as an industrial buildout: launch costs down an order of magnitude, broadband and direct-to-device constellations, Earth observation, lunar programs, and a defense budget pivoting toward resilient space architectures and missile defense. No S&P 500 pure play exists, so the S&P leg is primes with major space segments — diluted by design; the pure plays across launch, constellations and in-space infrastructure live in the FW 3000 version. High-beta and long-duration: the basket is a read on risk appetite for the theme as much as on the theme itself.
Follow the theme against the wider market.
Series before each basket's creation date are a backtest of the membership as of creation; live tracking starts at creation.
| Return | 1 day | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days | MTD | YTD | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basket | +0.3% | +5.2% | +2.0% | -6.1% | +5.8% | -1.1% | -2.2% |
| vs S&P 500 | -0.3% | +4.6% | +1.3% | -10.2% | +4.2% | -13.0% | -15.6% |
1y · 2025-10-21 – 2026-10-21 · 252 / 252 sessions
Basket total returns · Annualized using 252 trading sessions · 0% risk-free rate and downside target. As of 2026-10-21 · close.
Sharpe: average daily simple return divided by its sample standard deviation, multiplied by √252. The risk-free rate is assumed to be 0%; this is not a cash-adjusted ratio.
Sortino: average daily simple return divided by downside deviation, multiplied by √252. Downside deviation is the square root of the average squared shortfall below 0%, counting all sessions, including zeros for gains.
Historical volatility: √(252 × average squared daily log return), matching the Vol page’s realized-volatility convention. This differs from the sample standard deviation used in Sharpe.
Each period requires complete history and at least 5 sessions. MTD and YTD follow the calendar; 1y is 252 sessions. Missing data or an undefined ratio displays — with a reason. Short periods can produce unstable ratios; intraday snapshots include a partial session. History before this basket’s creation is backtested. If a new basket has no stored daily return series yet, estimates from its rounded published chart levels are marked ≈.
Current members and the reasoning behind each inclusion. Returns are for individual holdings.
| Why it’s included | Added | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LMTLockheed Martin | Space segment prime: Orion, GPS III, missile-warning birds and the other half of ULA | +0.5% | +5.6% | +5.1% | +16.1% | 2026-07-21 |
| NOC | Space Systems: satellites, solid boosters, Cygnus resupply and classified constellations | +1.0% | +8.8% | +4.8% | -4.3% | 2026-07-21 |
| LDOSLeidos | NASA services prime plus Dynetics space and hypersonics hardware | +1.2% | +7.2% | +3.6% | -27.7% | 2026-07-21 |
| LHX | Aerojet Rocketdyne propulsion (RL10, RS-25) plus responsive-space payloads | -0.5% | +4.2% | +3.5% | -14.6% | 2026-07-21 |
| TDYTeledyne Technologies | Space-qualified imaging and detectors (Teledyne e2v — Webb's sensors) for EO and science payloads | -0.3% | +3.5% | +1.5% | +23.4% | 2026-07-21 |
| RTXRTX Corporation | Missile-warning and space sensor payloads; Blue Canyon smallsats — the diluted sensor leg | -0.9% | +2.8% | -0.3% | +5.6% | 2026-07-21 |
| BABoeing | Defense & space prime: satellites, Starliner, SLS core stage and half of ULA | +0.9% | +4.1% | -3.8% | -11.4% | 2026-07-21 |
Equal-weighted; monthly rebalance, buy-and-hold between rebalances; dated membership changes reset the target weights.
Tracked since 2026-07-21. Membership decisions are documented below.
Read the methodology →Basket returns include dividends. “vs S&P 500” compares the basket’s compounded growth with the benchmark’s. Green means positive; red means negative.
Cross-checked against UFO. Daily return correlation: 0.61 across 1710 sessions. the listed pure-play space fund; global constituents (Eutelsat, MDA, iQPS) vs our US-only universes, and none of our prime-segment exposure
Initial composition: 22 names. S&P 500 leg is primes with major space segments (BA, LMT, NOC, LHX, RTX, TDY, LDOS) — diluted by design, since no S&P 500 pure play exists. FW 3000 leg is the pure plays: launch (RKLB, FLY), constellations and satcom (ASTS, IRDM, GSAT, VSAT, SATS), Earth observation (PL, BKSY, SPIR), lunar and in-space infrastructure (LUNR, RDW, VOYG), components (KRMN) and ground software (KTOS). Reference pinned to UFO. Considered and excluded: AMZN (Kuiper is a top-3 constellation buildout but immaterial to the equity), GD (ground segment only), MOG-A (space is a minority of a mostly-aircraft business), HWM and GE (engines, not space), SPCE (below the FW 3000 cap cutoff), DXYZ (closed-end fund wrapper on private SpaceX shares, not an operating company). SpaceX, Blue Origin and Sierra Space are private — the theme's biggest actors are unlisted, which is exactly why the listed pure plays carry scarcity premiums.