Regime map
Every 63-session window since April 1990, placed beside the windows it most resembles. Colour is the regime; select one in the key to highlight it.
The map draws with JavaScript; the closest periods are listed in the table below.
Not yet elapsed
NowThe 10 closest periods, numberedLarger dots had more unusual readings
Mar 2005 · Calm expansion · 80% similar to now · S&P 500 next 60 sessions +0.9%
Most unusual then: Energy vs market +20.5 pp · 2s10s curve change −51 bp · WTI crude over 12 months +53.0%
The regime now
Late-cycle tightening
| Defining feature | Now | Percentileof months since 1990 |
|---|---|---|
| Tight credit spreadsBaa spread level | 151 bp | 6th |
| Flat curve2s10s curve level | 25 bp | 24th |
| Yields rising10-year yield change | +35 bp | 82nd |
| Defensives lagging differs todayDefensives vs market, 63-session return, relative | +8.8 pp | 97th |
| Growth highGrowth level, Cycle Clock percentile | 52nd | 72nd |
Closest analogs
The 10 earlier periods most like the last 63 sessions, and what the S&P 500 did next. Max drawdown is its largest fall from a closing high within the 252 sessions. Select one to compare it with now.
| Period | Similarity | Regime | S&P 500next 5 sessions | S&P 500next 20 sessions | S&P 500next 60 sessions | S&P 500next 252 sessions (1y) | S&P 500max drawdown (1y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | Calm expansion | +0.9% | −3.2% | +0.9% | +10.1%max drawdown −5.5% | −5.5% | |
| 71% | Late-cycle tightening | +0.7% | +2.1% | +18.4% | +44.4%max drawdown −10.8% | −10.8% | |
| 71% | Late-cycle tightening | +3.8% | +3.9% | +9.7% | +48.8%max drawdown −9.6% | −9.6% | |
| 68% | Calm expansion | −0.1% | +2.0% | +7.9% | +14.8%max drawdown −6.3% | −6.3% | |
| 64% | Calm expansion | +2.2% | +3.2% | +9.2% | +34.0%max drawdown −3.7% | −3.7% | |
| 60% | Inflation shock | −0.7% | −8.8% | −15.6% | −9.0%max drawdown −21.9% | −21.9% | |
| 59% | Late-cycle tightening | −1.5% | +1.0% | +12.7% | +26.7%max drawdown −19.3% | −19.3% | |
| 56% | Late-cycle tightening | +3.8% | +1.0% | −1.1% | +13.1%max drawdown −16.4% | −16.4% | |
| 56% | Inflation shock | −1.7% | +2.2% | +5.1% | +9.4%max drawdown −10.3% | −10.3% | |
| 55% | Late-cycle tightening | +2.9% | +9.0% | +7.9% | +13.0%max drawdown −19.9% | −19.9% |
What happened next
The S&P 500 after the 10 closest periods, beside every month since 1990. A description of 10 cases, not a forecast.
Next 5 sessions+0.8%median of the 10 closest · 60% positiveAll months: +0.5% · 62% positive
Next 20 sessions+2.0%median of the 10 closest · 80% positiveAll months: +1.3% · 64% positive
Next 60 sessions+7.9%median of the 10 closest · 80% positiveAll months: +2.9% · 69% positive
Next 252 sessions (1y)+14.0%median of the 10 closest · 90% positiveAll months: +12.1% · 80% positive
Max drawdown (1y)−10.5%median of the 10 closest · 60% fell 10% or moreAll months: −10.2% · 52% fell 10% or more
The chart draws with JavaScript; the tiles above carry the medians.
Median of the 10Middle halfEach periodSelected period
Behind the match
Why it matchesNow against Mar 2005: closest on Baa spread level, 2s10s curve change, WTI crude over 12 months; furthest on Energy vs market, Gold
Every reading now and in the selected period, in its own units and in standard deviations from the average month end. Close marks the readings that pull the two together most, far the ones that separate them most.
| Reading | Now | Mar 2005 | Now, σ | Then, σ | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | |||||
| S&P 50063-session return | −2.3% | −2.7% | −0.6σ | −0.7σ | |
| Small caps vs S&P 50063-session return, relative | −4.5 pp | −3.1 pp | −0.8σ | −0.6σ | |
| Technology vs market63-session return, relative | −6.4 pp | −5.0 pp | −1.2σ | −0.9σ | |
| Energy vs market63-session return, relative | +6.5 pp | +20.5 pp | +0.7σ | +2.1σ | far |
| Financials vs market63-session return, relative | +3.1 pp | −4.0 pp | +0.5σ | −0.7σ | |
| Defensives vs market63-session return, relative | +8.8 pp | +3.7 pp | +1.9σ | +0.8σ | close |
| Stocks above 200-day averagelevel | 67% | 71% | +0.3σ | +0.5σ | |
| Rates | |||||
| 10-year yield change63-session change | +35 bp | +17 bp | +0.8σ | +0.4σ | |
| 2s10s curve change63-session change | −23 bp | −51 bp | −0.8σ | −1.7σ | close |
| 2s10s curve levellevel | 25 bp | 70 bp | −0.8σ | −0.3σ | |
| 10-year yield volatilityover 63 sessions | 83 bp | 71 bp | 0.0σ | −0.6σ | |
| Credit | |||||
| Baa spread levellevel | 151 bp | 164 bp | −1.3σ | −1.0σ | close |
| Baa spread change63-session change | −16 bp | −25 bp | −0.4σ | −0.7σ | |
| Volatility | |||||
| VIX levellevel | 17.5 | 14.0 | −0.1σ | −0.8σ | |
| VIX change63-session change | +2.9 pts | +2.4 pts | +0.4σ | +0.3σ | |
| Commodities and the dollar | |||||
| WTI crude63-session return | +8.4% | +26.6% | +0.4σ | +1.1σ | |
| WTI crude over 12 months252-session return | +47.2% | +53.0% | +1.1σ | +1.2σ | close |
| Gold63-session return | −9.5% | −1.4% | −1.6σ | −0.4σ | far |
| Copper63-session return | −4.8% | +4.0% | −0.5σ | +0.2σ | |
| Dollar (DXY)63-session return | +3.0% | +3.8% | +0.7σ | +0.9σ | |
| Growth and inflation | |||||
| Growth rate of changeCycle Clock percentile | 65th | 59th | +0.8σ | +0.5σ | |
| Inflation rate of changeCycle Clock percentile | 42nd | 51st | −0.4σ | +0.1σ | |
| Growth levelCycle Clock percentile | 52nd | 55th | +0.6σ | +0.8σ | |
| Inflation levelCycle Clock percentile | 68th | 49th | +1.5σ | +0.5σ | far |
Regimes8 regimes since 1990; now in Late-cycle tightening, 83 of 439 months
The 8 groups the month-end windows fall into, named from their average readings, with what the S&P 500 did in the 60 sessions after a month in each.
| Regime | Months | Most unusual readings | S&P 500next 60 sessions, median | Positiveshare of months | Typical months | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calm expansion | 119 · 27% | VIX low, rate volatility low, tight credit spreads | +2.9% | 75% | Nov 2006, Dec 2017, Jul 2018 | Aug 2026 |
| Late-cycle tighteningcurrent | 83 · 19% | tight credit spreads, flat curve, yields rising | +3.7% | 75% | Sep 1996, Oct 1996, May 1997 | Oct 2026 |
| Disinflation | 70 · 16% | oil down on the year, energy lagging, dollar rising | +2.0% | 74% | Apr 2013, Oct 2014, Nov 2014 | Jan 2020 |
| Early-cycle recovery | 66 · 15% | steep curve, growth accelerating, copper rising | +3.8% | 65% | Dec 2003, Feb 2011, Sep 2013 | Apr 2021 |
| Inflation shock | 28 · 6% | inflation high, oil up on the year, energy leading | −3.0% | 36% | Jan 2022, Feb 2022, Jul 2022 | Dec 2022 |
| Risk-off | 38 · 9% | stocks falling, narrow participation, VIX high | +0.5% | 50% | Aug 2001, Jul 2002, Jan 2008 | Apr 2025 |
| Rebound | 17 · 4% | VIX falling, growth low, oil down on the year | +6.4% | 82% | Dec 2001, Jan 2002, Apr 2009 | Aug 2020 |
| Sell-off | 18 · 4% | VIX rising, stocks falling, narrow participation | +8.4% | 72% | Sep 2001, Oct 2001, Apr 2020 | Apr 2020 |
Inputs24 readings in 6 groups, each group weighted equally
The latest window's readings, where each sits among the 439 month ends since April 1990, and its weight in the comparison.
| Reading | Now | Percentileof month ends | σ from average | Weight | Data through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | |||||
| S&P 50063-session return | −2.3% | 20th | −0.6σ | 2.4% | 2026-11-11 |
| Small caps vs S&P 50063-session return, relative | −4.5 pp | 17th | −0.8σ | 2.4% | 2026-11-11 |
| Technology vs market63-session return, relative | −6.4 pp | 9th | −1.2σ | 2.4% | 2026-11-11 |
| Energy vs market63-session return, relative | +6.5 pp | 79th | +0.7σ | 2.4% | 2026-11-11 |
| Financials vs market63-session return, relative | +3.1 pp | 74th | +0.5σ | 2.4% | 2026-11-11 |
| Defensives vs market63-session return, relative | +8.8 pp | 97th | +1.9σ | 2.4% | 2026-11-11 |
| Stocks above 200-day averagelevel | 67% | 51st | +0.3σ | 2.4% | 2026-11-11 |
| Rates | |||||
| 10-year yield change63-session change | +35 bp | 82nd | +0.8σ | 4.2% | 2026-11-10 |
| 2s10s curve change63-session change | −23 bp | 18th | −0.8σ | 4.2% | 2026-11-11 |
| 2s10s curve levellevel | 25 bp | 24th | −0.8σ | 4.2% | 2026-11-11 |
| 10-year yield volatilityover 63 sessions | 83 bp | 49th | 0.0σ | 4.2% | 2026-11-11 |
| Credit | |||||
| Baa spread levellevel | 151 bp | 6th | −1.3σ | 8.3% | 2026-11-09 |
| Baa spread change63-session change | −16 bp | 28th | −0.4σ | 8.3% | 2026-11-11 |
| Volatility | |||||
| VIX levellevel | 17.5 | 51st | −0.1σ | 8.3% | 2026-11-11 |
| VIX change63-session change | +2.9 pts | 78th | +0.4σ | 8.3% | 2026-11-11 |
| Commodities and the dollar | |||||
| WTI crude63-session return | +8.4% | 67th | +0.4σ | 3.3% | 2026-11-11 |
| WTI crude over 12 months252-session return | +47.2% | 87th | +1.1σ | 3.3% | 2026-11-11 |
| Gold63-session return | −9.5% | 4th | −1.6σ | 3.3% | 2026-11-11 |
| Copper63-session return | −4.8% | 28th | −0.5σ | 3.3% | 2026-11-11 |
| Dollar (DXY)63-session return | +3.0% | 79th | +0.7σ | 3.3% | 2026-11-11 |
| Growth and inflation | |||||
| Growth rate of changeCycle Clock percentile | 65th | 82nd | +0.8σ | 4.2% | 2026-11-12 |
| Inflation rate of changeCycle Clock percentile | 42nd | 38th | −0.4σ | 4.2% | 2026-11-12 |
| Growth levelCycle Clock percentile | 52nd | 72nd | +0.6σ | 4.2% | 2026-11-12 |
| Inflation levelCycle Clock percentile | 68th | 91st | +1.5σ | 4.2% | 2026-11-12 |
NotesSimilarity, the map, regimes and what the comparison cannot say
How the comparison is built. Full specification: methodology §20.
- Windows
- One window of 63 trading sessions ends at each month end since April 1990, and one ends on the latest completed session. Returns and changes are measured across the window; levels are read on its last day. Growth and inflation are the Cycle Clock's percentiles for the latest month released by then, and the nowcast for the current window.
- Similarity
- Each reading is expressed in standard deviations from its month-end average and capped at three. Every group counts equally, so seven equity readings weigh as much as two credit readings. Similarity is 75% the direction two windows share (the cosine of their readings) and 25% how alike they are in size. 100% is identical; 0% is unrelated.
- Closest periods
- The most similar month ends at least 12 months before now, keeping only the best of any that fall within 6 months of each other so one episode is listed once.
- Map and regimes
- The map places windows so that similar ones are neighbours; distances across the map are not exact, and the similarity column is the measure to quote. Regimes come from grouping the windows into 8 clusters and are named from each cluster's average readings. Faint lines join each window to its two closest matches at least three months away, and larger dots had more unusual readings. The map and the regimes are refitted when a month is added, starting from the previous fit so the picture changes little.
- Breadth
- The share of S&P 500 members above their 200-day average is the published Factor Watch series since 2020. Before that it is estimated from the share of 49 industries above their own 200-day average, fitted on the years both exist (R² 0.93).
- What this cannot say
- Ten periods is a small sample, and readings are standardised on the whole history, which a reader at the time did not have. Published tests of nearest-neighbour analogs as forecasts are mixed to negative, and this comparison has not been tested against the long-run average. Use the page to describe the present, not to predict.