Business models the market discounts when GLP-1 adoption accelerates: indulgent packaged food and drinks, alcohol, quick-service restaurants, and the medical devices treating obesity comorbidities (sleep apnea, diabetes hardware, dialysis). A monitoring list for underperformance — not a recommendation in either direction.
Follow the theme against the wider market.
Series before each basket's creation date are a backtest of the membership as of creation; live tracking starts at creation.
| Return | 1 day | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days | MTD | YTD | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basket | +0.8% | +5.1% | +3.4% | +2.9% | +7.6% | +0.9% | -2.2% |
| vs S&P 500 | +1.9% | +7.1% | +3.2% | -0.8% | +7.3% | -10.2% | -15.3% |
1y · 2025-10-16 – 2026-10-16 · 252 / 252 sessions
Basket total returns · Annualized using 252 trading sessions · 0% risk-free rate and downside target. As of 2026-10-16 · close.
Sharpe: average daily simple return divided by its sample standard deviation, multiplied by √252. The risk-free rate is assumed to be 0%; this is not a cash-adjusted ratio.
Sortino: average daily simple return divided by downside deviation, multiplied by √252. Downside deviation is the square root of the average squared shortfall below 0%, counting all sessions, including zeros for gains.
Historical volatility: √(252 × average squared daily log return), matching the Vol page’s realized-volatility convention. This differs from the sample standard deviation used in Sharpe.
Each period requires complete history and at least 5 sessions. MTD and YTD follow the calendar; 1y is 252 sessions. Missing data or an undefined ratio displays — with a reason. Short periods can produce unstable ratios; intraday snapshots include a partial session. History before this basket’s creation is backtested. If a new basket has no stored daily return series yet, estimates from its rounded published chart levels are marked ≈.
Current members and the reasoning behind each inclusion. Returns are for individual holdings.
| Why it’s included | Added | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KDP | Carbonated soft drinks | +1.3% | +9.0% | +12.6% | +27.5% | 2026-06-11 |
| BF-BBrown–Forman | Spirits — alcohol-pullback risk | +1.0% | +9.4% | +11.3% | +13.8% | 2026-06-11 |
| STZConstellation Brands | Beer/wine/spirits — alcohol-pullback risk | +1.4% | +7.1% | +10.4% | -2.8% | 2026-06-11 |
| YUMYum! Brands | QSR portfolio (KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut) | -0.2% | +3.9% | +9.1% | +0.9% | 2026-06-11 |
| RMDResMed | Sleep apnea devices — the original GLP-1 casualty trade | -1.3% | +3.9% | +6.2% | +0.0% | 2026-06-11 |
| MDLZMondelez International | Snacking exposure | +1.4% | +5.8% | +6.0% | +21.8% | 2026-06-11 |
| TAP | Beer volumes — GLP-1 users drink less | +1.3% | +6.2% | +5.3% | -12.4% | 2026-06-11 |
| DPZDomino's | Pizza delivery — indulgence occasions | +1.8% | -0.2% | +4.9% | -24.7% | 2026-06-11 |
| SJMJ.M. Smucker Company (The) | Sweet snacking (Hostess) plus spreads | +1.2% | +6.3% | +3.6% | +34.3% | 2026-06-11 |
| DVADaVita | Dialysis: long-tail kidney-disease exposure | -1.0% | +4.5% | +1.9% | +64.9% | 2026-06-11 |
| PEPPepsiCo | Frito-Lay salty snacks plus sugary drinks | +2.4% | +4.4% | +1.3% | -5.6% | 2026-06-11 |
| HSYHershey Company (The) | Confectionery volume risk | +1.3% | +5.0% | +0.6% | -4.0% | 2026-06-11 |
| PODDInsulet Corporation | Insulin pumps, same debate | +1.7% | +4.3% | +0.4% | -50.4% | 2026-06-11 |
| MCDMcDonald's | QSR traffic under appetite suppression | +0.2% | +3.3% | -2.1% | -18.9% | 2026-06-11 |
| KHCThe Kraft Heinz Company | Processed food skew | +1.7% | +6.3% | -3.1% | +2.7% | 2026-06-11 |
| DXCMDexcom | CGM: diabetes incidence debate | -1.9% | +2.3% | -3.7% | +29.6% | 2026-06-11 |
| GISGeneral Mills | Packaged food basket weight | +0.8% | +4.5% | -7.0% | -23.8% | 2026-06-11 |
No longer in the selected universe; awaiting membership review: TAP.
Equal-weighted; monthly rebalance, buy-and-hold between rebalances; dated membership changes reset the target weights.
Tracked since 2026-06-11. Membership decisions are documented below.
Read the methodology →Basket returns include dividends. “vs S&P 500” compares the basket’s compounded growth with the benchmark’s. Green means positive; red means negative.
CAG and CPB left the S&P 500 (index demotions, caught by the pipeline's constituent check). Both remain FW 3000 constituents and move to broad entries, as ZION, MOH, and MHK did — the FW 3000 version is unchanged, the S&P version thins to 17. Packaged-food demotions from the index are the GLP-1 pressure thesis playing out in slow motion.
FW 3000 pass: added UTZ, JJSF, WING, EAT, TXRH, TNDM, INSP — names outside the S&P 500 but inside our broad universe; they count only in the FW 3000 version of this basket. Effective-dated to creation so the broad backtest covers the full set. The S&P 500 basket is unchanged.
Widening pass: added the rest of indulgent food and drink (CAG, SJM, PEP, KDP), the alcohol leg (TAP, STZ, BF-B), and quick-service restaurants (MCD, YUM, DPZ). No clean inverse-theme ETF exists; the basket stays a watchlist. New members are effective-dated to basket creation so the backtest and the reference correlation cover the widened set (the basket was one day old, with no meaningful live history to restate).
Pressured names only; LLY alone is not a basket. Monitoring list, not a recommendation.