Defense & Aerospace
Rearmament as a secular budget line: primes, shipbuilding, aero suppliers, defense IT and software, and the commercial aero duopoly’s troubled half. Geopolitical risk-on basket — it works when nothing else does.
Performance
Follow the theme against the wider market.
Series before each basket's creation date are a backtest of the membership as of creation; live tracking starts at creation.
| Return | 1 day | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days | MTD | YTD | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basket | -1.2% | -4.3% | -7.6% | +5.3% | -2.6% | +1.2% | +7.4% |
| vs S&P 500 | -0.8% | -4.5% | -7.3% | -0.9% | -3.1% | -10.6% | -10.1% |
Inside the basket · 14 stocks
Current members and the reasoning behind each inclusion. Returns are for individual stocks.
| Why it’s included | Added | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | Defense/intel software — government is the anchor customer | -4.5% | -6.4% | +1.4% | -1.9% | 2026-06-11 |
| LDOS | Defense IT and mission-systems prime | +0.5% | -5.4% | -3.3% | -25.8% | 2026-06-11 |
| TDG | Aftermarket pricing power | +0.4% | -2.0% | -5.2% | -12.6% | 2026-06-11 |
| HWM | Engine components supercycle | -0.5% | -2.1% | -8.0% | +26.6% | 2026-06-11 |
| GD | Submarines + Gulfstream | -1.8% | -5.3% | -8.3% | +8.2% | 2026-06-11 |
| GE | Engine aftermarket annuity | +1.1% | -1.6% | -8.9% | +9.7% | 2026-06-11 |
| BA | The contested turnaround leg | +0.8% | +1.2% | -9.5% | -2.2% | 2026-06-11 |
| NOC | B-21 + space/nuclear triad | -2.5% | -5.2% | -9.5% | -8.6% | 2026-06-11 |
| RTX | Missiles/defense + commercial aero engines | -0.7% | -5.2% | -9.7% | +10.7% | 2026-06-11 |
| AXON | Public-safety tech: Tasers, body cams, evidence cloud | -4.2% | -14.2% | -9.7% | -9.2% | 2026-06-11 |
| LMT | Prime scale, F-35 annuity | -1.4% | -6.3% | -10.1% | +10.6% | 2026-06-11 |
| LHX | Electronics + munitions | -1.7% | -2.0% | -10.1% | -11.6% | 2026-06-11 |
| HII | Shipbuilding monopoly economics | -1.6% | -2.8% | -11.5% | -14.9% | 2026-06-11 |
| TXT | Bell helicopters plus Textron Systems | -0.4% | -4.8% | -11.6% | -9.3% | 2026-06-11 |
Partial price histories: PLTR from 2020-09-30.
How this basket is built
Equal-weighted, monthly-rebalanced, buy-and-hold between rebalances; dated membership changes take effect same-day.
Tracked since 2026-06-11. Membership decisions are documented below.
Read the methodology →Reading the returns
Basket returns include dividends. “vs S&P 500” compares the basket’s compounded growth with the benchmark’s. Green means positive; red means negative.
Cross-checked against ITA. Daily return correlation: 0.95 across 1678 sessions. cap-weighted vs our equal weight; otherwise a close universe match
Membership history & changes
- expand
FW 3000 pass: added HEI, CW, CACI, BAH, SAIC, KTOS, AVAV, RKLB — names outside the S&P 500 but inside our broad universe; they count only in the FW 3000 version of this basket. Effective-dated to creation so the broad backtest covers the full set. The S&P 500 basket is unchanged.
- expand
Widening pass: added the defense-IT/software leg (LDOS, PLTR), public-safety tech (AXON), and Textron — the full S&P 500 aerospace & defense sub-industry plus software. Reference pinned to ITA. New members are effective-dated to basket creation so the backtest and the reference correlation cover the widened set (the basket was one day old, with no meaningful live history to restate).
- create
Initial composition: primes + aero supply chain.