Homebuilders
The pure-play mortgage-rate beta: production builders buying down rates to clear inventory, move-up and luxury mix, the entry-level spec machines, manufactured housing at the affordability floor, and the spun-out land bank that finances the land-light model. Housing-chain tracks the whole ecosystem; this basket isolates the builders themselves, where the margin cycle and the rate trade express first and hardest.
Performance
Follow the theme against the wider market.
Series before each basket's creation date are a backtest of the membership as of creation; live tracking starts at creation.
| Return | 1 day | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days | MTD | YTD | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basket | -0.8% | -2.8% | -4.6% | -0.9% | -0.9% | -6.1% | -22.6% |
| vs S&P 500 | -0.4% | -2.9% | -4.3% | -6.7% | -1.4% | -17.0% | -35.2% |
Inside the basket · 4 stocks
Current members and the reasoning behind each inclusion. Returns are for individual stocks.
| Why it’s included | Added | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVR | The land-light archetype: options, not ownership | -1.2% | -1.5% | -1.4% | -13.6% | 2026-07-21 |
| LEN | Asset-light pivot post-Millrose spin | -1.0% | -3.2% | -5.2% | -17.4% | 2026-07-21 |
| DHI | Volume leader — the rate-buydown machine | -1.1% | -3.2% | -5.5% | +0.0% | 2026-07-21 |
| PHM | Move-up and active-adult mix with the group's best margins | +0.1% | -3.2% | -6.4% | +6.6% | 2026-07-21 |
How this basket is built
Equal-weighted, monthly-rebalanced, buy-and-hold between rebalances; dated membership changes take effect same-day.
Tracked since 2026-07-21. Membership decisions are documented below.
Read the methodology →Reading the returns
Basket returns include dividends. “vs S&P 500” compares the basket’s compounded growth with the benchmark’s. Green means positive; red means negative.
Cross-checked against ITB. Daily return correlation: 0.97 across 1678 sessions. the builder-heaviest listed proxy (~half pure builders, plus products and retail); XHB is pinned to housing-chain
Membership history & changes
- create
Initial composition: 16 names — S&P 500 production builders (DHI, LEN, PHM, NVR), the off-index builder cross-section (TOL, TMHC, KBH, MTH, GRBK, CCS, LGIH, MHO, DFH), manufactured housing (SKY, CVCO) and the Millrose land bank (MRP). TOL is tagged broad, consistent with its tagging in housing-chain. Reference pinned to ITB. Considered and excluded: TPH (absent from the current FW 3000 data — revisit at the next reconstitution), BZH and HOV (smallest, most levered builders — this basket reads the rate cycle, not the credit tail), LSEA (acquired), and the products/installer chain (IBP, BLD), which stays in housing-chain.