Market snapshot
In brief
The story
The move. Consumer Cyclical is 9.2% ahead of the S&P over 20 sessions, a 3.0σ reading at the 98th percentile of the trailing year and now nine sessions old. The mirror image is Communication Services, 11.0% behind the index over the same window (z -2.3, 2nd percentile), the sector's 8th-worst 20-session run since 2020 and twelve sessions in. Not every cyclical joined: Homebuilders lost 5.4% to the S&P on the week, with NVR -8%, Lennar -6% and D. R. Horton -6% accounting for 82% of the basket's move.
The market. The S&P closed at 7,617.84, up 1.29% (z +1.4), still 0.8% lower on the week and 1.2% lower over 20 sessions. The VIX fell 10.1% to 17.49. Breadth has widened: 73% of the index sits above its 50-day average against 36% a month ago, a 20-session change at the 93rd percentile since 2020. Twenty-day realized vol is 22.0%, the top of its trailing-year range. The WSJ attributed the session to investors running back to AI stocks less than a week after a historic selloff.
The baskets. Optical Interconnect gained 9.5% on the S&P this week, Coherent's +20% supplying 5.25 points of it, with Ciena +9% and Lumentum +3%; the basket's 20-day realized vol of 110.5% is the highest since 2020. Power & Grid Buildout added 4.2% (z +1.5), led by NRG Energy +17%, Constellation Energy +12% and Vistra +11%, and AI Infrastructure Leaders added 5.9% with Coherent, Monolithic Power Systems +17% and Advanced Micro Devices +13% the largest contributors.
The board · factors vs S&P 500, relative return with z vs the trailing year, sorted by the week
| Factor | 1D | 5D | 20D | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (computed) absolute | +1.3% +1.4σ | -0.8% -0.6σ | -1.2% -0.7σ | +12.0% |
| Quality | +0.5% +1.5σ | +0.8% +1.1σ | +0.1% -0.2σ | +5.0% |
| Momentum | +2.1% +1.8σ | +2.4% +1.0σ | -6.2% -1.6σ | +8.3% |
| High beta | +2.2% +1.6σ | +2.7% +0.9σ | -5.8% -1.2σ | +7.0% |
| Low volatility | -1.0% -1.0σ | +0.2% +0.1σ | +8.2% +1.8σ | +1.2% |
| Value | -0.8% -0.9σ | +0.3% +0.0σ | +6.1% +1.4σ | +7.6% |
| Size | -1.0% -1.1σ | +0.1% -0.0σ | +10.5% +2.5σ | +6.7% |
| Dividend yield | -1.0% -0.9σ | -0.3% -0.2σ | +8.6% +1.6σ | +10.9% |
Also
- Memory & Storage basket -18.6% vs S&P over 20 sessions
- Housing Chain basket +16.2% vs S&P over 20 sessions
- GLP-1 Pressure × Housing Chain: 60-session correlation of daily returns minus the S&P 500 is r=+0.77 (60 paired sessions), versus r=+0.32 (60 paired sessions) for the 60-session period ending 2026-10-14, 20 sessions earlier. Factors use long portfolios.
- Analysts: 155↑ / 72↓ FY1 EPS, net +17%
- Nasdaq Futures Rally as AI Optimism Returns — WSJ
- Investors Run Back to AI Stocks, Less Than a Week After a Historic Selloff — WSJ
Breadth, leadership, revisions, realized vol and the baskets, every day: the dashboard. Explore correlations →. Headlines are quoted from their publishers for context.
Tomorrow · Nov 12
- Thursday: Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (Nov/07), consensus 192.5K.
- Thursday: Continuing Jobless Claims (Oct/31), consensus 1710K.
- Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims (Nov/07), consensus 195K.
- Reporting Thursday: CSCO, AMAT.
The narrative in this brief is drafted by an AI model from Factor Watch's computed data and checked against it, but it can still be wrong — verify anything before you act on it.