Defensives
Demand that does not care about the cycle: staples, household products, tobacco, regulated utilities, waste, telecom, and needs-based healthcare. The basket to watch when breadth narrows and the tape gets defensive.
+3.4% 20d vs S&P 500
Macro & Rates Thematic basket
Commodity Producers
The upstream commodity complex: oil and gas producers, copper, gold and silver miners, steel and aluminum, lithium and rare earths, fertilizer and grain merchants, and timberland — the price-takers whose earnings are the commodity price. The inflation, dollar and China-demand trade expressed through equities; watch it against Defensives and the Magnificent Seven for the real-assets-vs-duration rotation. Overlap with the energy basket is deliberate — this one drops the refiners, pipes and services and adds the metals, agriculture and timber legs.
1 day-0.3%basket return
20 days+1.3%basket return
20 days vs S&P 500+0.6%relative return
Year to date+31.8%basket return
Performance
Follow the theme against the wider market.
Commodity ProducersS&P 500
Series before each basket's creation date are a backtest of the membership as of creation; live tracking starts at creation.
| Return | 1 day | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days | MTD | YTD | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basket | -0.3% | +0.3% | +1.3% | +5.2% | +5.8% | +31.8% | +38.6% |
| vs S&P 500 | -0.9% | -0.2% | +0.6% | +0.5% | +4.2% | +15.9% | +19.6% |
Risk statistics
Period
1y · 2025-10-21 – 2026-10-21 · 252 / 252 sessions
Sharpe ratio1.81Annualized · 0% risk-free rate
Sortino ratio2.82Annualized · 0% downside target
Historical volatility19.1%Annualized · daily log returns
Basket total returns · Annualized using 252 trading sessions · 0% risk-free rate and downside target. As of 2026-10-21 · close.
How these statistics are calculated
Risk methodology
Sharpe: average daily simple return divided by its sample standard deviation, multiplied by √252. The risk-free rate is assumed to be 0%; this is not a cash-adjusted ratio.
Sortino: average daily simple return divided by downside deviation, multiplied by √252. Downside deviation is the square root of the average squared shortfall below 0%, counting all sessions, including zeros for gains.
Historical volatility: √(252 × average squared daily log return), matching the Vol page’s realized-volatility convention. This differs from the sample standard deviation used in Sharpe.
Each period requires complete history and at least 5 sessions. MTD and YTD follow the calendar; 1y is 252 sessions. Missing data or an undefined ratio displays — with a reason. Short periods can produce unstable ratios; intraday snapshots include a partial session. History before this basket’s creation is backtested. If a new basket has no stored daily return series yet, estimates from its rounded published chart levels are marked ≈.
Inside the basket · 21 stocks
Current members and the reasoning behind each inclusion. Returns are for individual holdings.
| Why it’s included | Added | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COPConocoPhillips | Largest independent E&P — Lower 48 shale plus Alaska and LNG | -0.2% | +2.3% | +13.7% | +59.1% | 2026-09-02 |
| APAAPA Corporation | Oil E&P: Permian, Egypt, Suriname | -0.5% | +4.8% | +13.6% | +107.6% | 2026-09-02 |
| EOGEOG Resources | Low-cost shale; the returns-discipline bellwether | -0.0% | +3.1% | +12.1% | +55.1% | 2026-09-02 |
| XOMExxonMobil | Integrated supermajor: Permian, Guyana, LNG — the index's largest commodity earner | +0.1% | +0.6% | +10.4% | +50.9% | 2026-09-02 |
| CVXChevron Corporation | Integrated #2 — Permian, Tengiz, Gulf of Mexico | +0.5% | +2.1% | +10.3% | +52.9% | 2026-09-02 |
| OXYOccidental Petroleum | Permian scale; Berkshire-backed, carbon-capture option | -0.4% | +2.1% | +9.3% | +54.6% | 2026-09-02 |
| FANGDiamondback Energy | Permian pure play — the cleanest oil-price torque in the index | -0.7% | +1.7% | +8.2% | +36.0% | 2026-09-02 |
| NUENucor | Largest US steelmaker — mini-mill HRC price-taker | +1.2% | +2.9% | +7.4% | +63.5% | 2026-09-02 |
| EXEExpand Energy | Largest US gas producer by volume (Chesapeake + Southwestern) | +0.2% | +1.9% | +6.7% | -14.4% | 2026-09-02 |
| STLDSteel Dynamics | Mini-mill steel plus an aluminum flat-roll entry | +1.5% | +2.1% | +6.1% | +47.5% | 2026-09-02 |
| EQTEQT Corporation | Appalachian natural gas — LNG-demand leverage | -1.4% | +2.5% | +5.9% | +1.8% | 2026-09-02 |
| DVNDevon Energy | Delaware-basin oil E&P | -1.0% | -0.1% | +3.8% | +38.7% | 2026-09-02 |
| TPLTexas Pacific Land Corporation | Permian royalties and water — asset-light oil torque, no capex | +0.6% | -2.9% | +2.5% | +20.4% | 2026-09-02 |
| ADMArcher Daniels Midland | Grain origination and oilseed crush — the listed way to own crop flows | -1.4% | -5.1% | -3.4% | +40.9% | 2026-09-02 |
| CFCF Industries | Nitrogen fertilizer — the gas-to-ammonia spread | -1.4% | -2.7% | -3.6% | +52.6% | 2026-09-02 |
| FCXFreeport-McMoRan | Copper: Grasberg and the Americas — the electrification metal, with gold by-product | +0.0% | -0.8% | -4.9% | +36.9% | 2026-09-02 |
| NEMNewmont | Largest gold miner — the index's only large-cap bullion producer | +0.3% | +5.0% | -5.2% | +18.1% | 2026-09-02 |
| BGBunge Global | Oilseed crush and grain merchant (Bunge + Viterra) | -0.8% | -6.1% | -8.3% | +16.8% | 2026-09-02 |
| WYWeyerhaeuser | One of the largest private timberland owners; lumber and OSB | -1.9% | +0.4% | -10.3% | -17.8% | 2026-09-02 |
| ALBAlbemarle Corporation | The largest listed lithium producer — the battery-metal cycle | -1.4% | -3.6% | -16.7% | -32.6% | 2026-09-02 |
| MOSMosaic Company (The) | Potash and phosphate — crop-nutrient pricing | -1.0% | -7.0% | -27.5% | -24.6% | 2026-09-02 |
Partial price histories: EXE from 2021-02-11.
How this basket is built
Equal-weighted; monthly rebalance, buy-and-hold between rebalances; dated membership changes reset the target weights.
Tracked since 2026-09-02. Membership decisions are documented below.
Read the methodology →Reading the returns
Basket returns include dividends. “vs S&P 500” compares the basket’s compounded growth with the benchmark’s. Green means positive; red means negative.
Cross-checked against GNR. Daily return correlation: 0.89 across 1710 sessions. the index splits a third each to energy, metals & mining and agribusiness, but it is global and cap-weighted — BHP, Rio, Glencore and Nutrien trade outside our US-only universes, so expect a looser fit than a sector SPDR
Membership history & changes
Membership history
- create
Initial composition: 45 names in the FW 3000, 21 of them S&P 500 members — integrated oil and the E&Ps including gas (XOM, CVX, COP, EOG, OXY, FANG, DVN, APA, EQT, EXE) and royalties (TPL), copper (FCX), gold (NEM), steel (NUE, STLD), lithium (ALB), fertilizer (CF, MOS), grain merchants (ADM, BG) and timber (WY). The FW 3000 adds the depth the index lacks: gas and oil E&Ps (AR, RRC, PR, OVV, MTDR, CHRD) and minerals (VNOM), copper (SCCO), gold and silver (AU, RGLD, CDE, HL), aluminum (AA, CENX), integrated steel (CLF), rare earths (MP), coal (BTU, CNR, HCC), uranium (UEC, UUUU), potash (IPI), grain (ANDE) and timberland (RYN). Reference pinned to GNR. The rule: the company must own the resource and take the commodity price — so refiners, midstream, services and drillers, petrochemicals (DOW, LYB), packaging (IP), aggregates (VMC, MLM), seeds and crop protection (CTVA), and the industrial-gas and specialty-chemical names are out; they process commodities or collect tolls on them. The S&P leg is energy-heavy by construction (the index holds two miners and no coal, uranium or aluminum); equal weight puts XOM and Mosaic at the same size, which is the point — a read on the complex, not a cap-weighted energy proxy. Considered and excluded: the foreign majors and miners that anchor GNR (BHP, RIO, VALE, TECK, NTR, CNQ, SU, CCJ) sit outside the US-only universes; PCH merged into RYN; CTRA and HES are no longer in either universe.