Capital Markets Cycle
Leverage to deal flow and asset values: investment banking, trading, exchanges, alternatives and private credit, custody, and asset/wealth managers. The IPO/M&A re-opening trade — this basket front-runs announced deal volumes.
Performance
Follow the theme against the wider market.
Series before each basket's creation date are a backtest of the membership as of creation; live tracking starts at creation.
| Return | 1 day | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days | MTD | YTD | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basket | -0.6% | -0.2% | +4.1% | +13.5% | +0.2% | +14.4% | +18.1% |
| vs S&P 500 | -0.2% | -0.4% | +4.5% | +6.7% | -0.3% | +1.1% | -1.2% |
Inside the basket · 25 stocks
Current members and the reasoning behind each inclusion. Returns are for individual stocks.
| Why it’s included | Added | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD | Retail trading flows; options/crypto volume torque | -2.1% | +17.1% | +30.9% | +8.0% | 2026-06-11 |
| SPGI | Ratings plus indices — issuance and AUM leverage | -1.6% | +0.1% | +8.9% | -14.5% | 2026-06-11 |
| ICE | Exchanges and listings; mortgage-tech kicker | -2.0% | -0.7% | +7.3% | +0.3% | 2026-06-11 |
| CME | Rates/futures volumes — monetizes volatility | -0.3% | -1.6% | +6.7% | +6.0% | 2026-06-11 |
| IBKR | Global electronic brokerage volumes | -0.4% | -3.3% | +5.6% | +44.5% | 2026-06-11 |
| IVZ | AM flows; QQQ franchise | +1.1% | +0.6% | +5.4% | +28.8% | 2026-06-11 |
| APO | Credit-heavy alts model | -0.6% | -1.0% | +5.3% | -6.5% | 2026-06-11 |
| STT | Custody and asset servicing scale | +0.2% | +0.5% | +5.2% | +53.3% | 2026-06-11 |
| KKR | Alts + insurance balance sheet | -1.9% | -0.9% | +5.0% | -15.0% | 2026-06-11 |
| BNY | Largest global custodian | +0.3% | +1.4% | +4.6% | +43.8% | 2026-06-11 |
| CBOE | Equity volatility franchise (SPX/VIX options) | -0.0% | -3.6% | +4.4% | +19.8% | 2026-06-11 |
| MCO | Ratings: leveraged to debt issuance volumes | -2.1% | -4.2% | +3.5% | -2.7% | 2026-06-11 |
| BEN | Active AM flows with high operating leverage | +3.5% | +0.2% | +2.8% | +48.9% | 2026-06-11 |
| NDAQ | Listings window plus index/data fees | -1.8% | -2.4% | +2.4% | +0.4% | 2026-06-11 |
| ARES | Private credit fundraising cycle | -1.0% | -1.7% | +2.4% | -11.2% | 2026-06-11 |
| MSCI | Index/analytics fees on global AUM | -0.3% | +0.4% | +2.1% | +1.0% | 2026-06-11 |
| SCHW | Retail engagement + NII torque | -1.0% | -0.8% | +1.9% | +10.5% | 2026-06-11 |
| AMP | Advice/wealth platform flows | -0.8% | +0.2% | +1.6% | +15.4% | 2026-06-11 |
| NTRS | Custody and wealth for institutions | +0.0% | +0.4% | +1.1% | +38.7% | 2026-06-11 |
| RJF | Mid-market wealth + IB | -1.5% | -0.6% | +1.0% | +12.2% | 2026-06-11 |
| MS | IB + wealth management ballast | +0.3% | +1.4% | +0.6% | +24.6% | 2026-06-11 |
| GS | Purest large-cap IB/trading mix | +0.1% | +0.9% | +0.4% | +19.9% | 2026-06-11 |
| BX | Alts fundraising supercycle | -1.1% | -4.4% | -0.7% | -8.9% | 2026-06-11 |
| BLK | Flows + market-level beta | -0.3% | -3.6% | -1.2% | +6.0% | 2026-06-11 |
| TROW | Active asset-management flows cycle | -1.0% | -1.3% | -3.7% | +10.1% | 2026-06-11 |
Partial price histories: HOOD from 2021-07-29.
How this basket is built
Equal-weighted, monthly-rebalanced, buy-and-hold between rebalances; dated membership changes take effect same-day.
Tracked since 2026-06-11. Membership decisions are documented below.
Read the methodology →Reading the returns
Basket returns include dividends. “vs S&P 500” compares the basket’s compounded growth with the benchmark’s. Green means positive; red means negative.
Cross-checked against KCE. Daily return correlation: 0.96 across 1678 sessions. modified equal weight across the same industry group, including mid-caps outside the index
Membership history & changes
- expand
FW 3000 pass: added EVR, LAZ, PJT, MC, HLI, JEF, LPLA, TW, VIRT, MKTX — names outside the S&P 500 but inside our broad universe; they count only in the FW 3000 version of this basket. Effective-dated to creation so the broad backtest covers the full set. The S&P 500 basket is unchanged.
- expand
Widening pass: added the exchanges (CME, ICE, NDAQ, CBOE), ratings/index complex (MCO, SPGI, MSCI), custody banks (STT, BNY, NTRS), traditional and alternative managers (TROW, BEN, IVZ, ARES), wealth (AMP), and retail brokers (HOOD, IBKR) — the full S&P 500 capital-markets industry group. Reference pinned to KCE. New members are effective-dated to basket creation so the backtest and the reference correlation cover the widened set (the basket was one day old, with no meaningful live history to restate).
- create
Initial composition: banks, platforms, alternatives.