The mortgage-rate trade expressed through equities: builders, building products, HVAC, tools, and home-improvement retail. The most rate-sensitive real-economy chain in the index.
Follow the theme against the wider market.
Series before each basket's creation date are a backtest of the membership as of creation; live tracking starts at creation.
| Return | 1 day | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days | MTD | YTD | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basket | +0.1% | +3.3% | +2.1% | -5.4% | +2.5% | -5.7% | -12.7% |
| vs S&P 500 | +1.2% | +5.3% | +2.0% | -8.8% | +2.2% | -16.0% | -24.4% |
1y · 2025-10-16 – 2026-10-16 · 252 / 252 sessions
Basket total returns · Annualized using 252 trading sessions · 0% risk-free rate and downside target. As of 2026-10-16 · close.
Sharpe: average daily simple return divided by its sample standard deviation, multiplied by √252. The risk-free rate is assumed to be 0%; this is not a cash-adjusted ratio.
Sortino: average daily simple return divided by downside deviation, multiplied by √252. Downside deviation is the square root of the average squared shortfall below 0%, counting all sessions, including zeros for gains.
Historical volatility: √(252 × average squared daily log return), matching the Vol page’s realized-volatility convention. This differs from the sample standard deviation used in Sharpe.
Each period requires complete history and at least 5 sessions. MTD and YTD follow the calendar; 1y is 252 sessions. Missing data or an undefined ratio displays — with a reason. Short periods can produce unstable ratios; intraday snapshots include a partial session. History before this basket’s creation is backtested. If a new basket has no stored daily return series yet, estimates from its rounded published chart levels are marked ≈.
Current members and the reasoning behind each inclusion. Returns are for individual holdings.
| Why it’s included | Added | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSMWilliams-Sonoma | Home furnishings retail — move/remodel spend | -0.4% | +3.8% | +11.9% | +42.0% | 2026-06-11 |
| MASMasco | Repair & remodel products | +0.4% | +6.0% | +7.1% | +16.4% | 2026-06-11 |
| SHW | Paint: R&R + new build | -0.5% | +5.0% | +4.5% | +4.2% | 2026-06-11 |
| AOSA. O. Smith | Water heaters — repair/replace plus new build | -0.4% | +5.0% | +4.0% | -10.0% | 2026-06-11 |
| SWKStanley Black & Decker | Tools — DIY and pro housing demand | -0.3% | +4.4% | +3.2% | +28.3% | 2026-06-11 |
| HDHome Depot (The) | Home improvement demand barometer | +0.5% | +6.5% | +3.2% | -8.1% | 2026-06-11 |
| ALLEAllegion | Locks and access hardware | +0.5% | +4.0% | +2.8% | -0.6% | 2026-06-11 |
| LOWLowe's | Same chain, DIY skew | +0.9% | +6.1% | +2.5% | -16.9% | 2026-06-11 |
| CARRCarrier Global | Residential HVAC and heat pumps | +0.1% | -1.0% | +2.1% | +5.3% | 2026-06-11 |
| LENLennar | Scale builder #2 | -0.8% | +0.5% | +1.5% | -23.3% | 2026-06-11 |
| DHID. R. Horton | Largest builder, entry-level skew | -0.1% | +3.3% | +1.0% | -2.4% | 2026-06-11 |
| LIILennox International | Residential HVAC replacement cycle | -0.2% | +0.4% | -0.0% | -25.7% | 2026-06-11 |
| PHMPulteGroup | Move-up segment exposure | +0.5% | +1.3% | -3.2% | -2.5% | 2026-06-11 |
| NVRNVR, Inc. | Land-light builder model | -0.4% | +0.3% | -3.8% | -18.8% | 2026-06-11 |
| BLDR | Builder supply chain | +1.8% | +3.4% | -6.0% | -46.9% | 2026-06-11 |
No longer in the selected universe; awaiting membership review: BLDR.
Partial price histories: CARR from 2020-03-19.
Equal-weighted; monthly rebalance, buy-and-hold between rebalances; dated membership changes reset the target weights.
Tracked since 2026-06-11. Membership decisions are documented below.
Read the methodology →Basket returns include dividends. “vs S&P 500” compares the basket’s compounded growth with the benchmark’s. Green means positive; red means negative.
Cross-checked against XHB. Daily return correlation: 0.98 across 1707 sessions. the same builder/products/retail mix, modified equal weight, mid-cap inclusive
POOL left the S&P 500 (caught by the pipeline's constituent check); it remains an FW 3000 constituent and moves to a broad entry, per the ZION/MOH/MHK pattern. The FW 3000 version is unchanged.
FW 3000 pass: added TOL, KBH, MTH, TMHC, IBP, TREX, SSD, WMS, FND, MHK — names outside the S&P 500 but inside our broad universe; they count only in the FW 3000 version of this basket. Effective-dated to creation so the broad backtest covers the full set. The S&P 500 basket is unchanged.
Widening pass: added the HVAC leg (LII, CARR), water heaters (AOS), hardware (ALLE), tools (SWK), and furnishings retail (WSM). Reference pinned to XHB. New members are effective-dated to basket creation so the backtest and the reference correlation cover the widened set (the basket was one day old, with no meaningful live history to restate).
MHK removed — no longer in the S&P 500 universe (flagged by the widening pass’s constituent check).
Initial composition: builders, products, retail.