FW 3000 factor internals

as of 2026-07-28

Low vol leads the 20-day tape (+6.1%) · sharpest move: Momentum -3.1σ on 5 days vs FW 3000 · 66% of the index above its 50-day.

The same engine over the FW 3000 — our Russell 3000-style universe of the largest 3,000 US common stocks, self-built with public rules and measured survivorship. Point-in-time quintile portfolios; every move z-scored against its own trailing history. Methodology is public.

How to read this page

Every number is compared to that series' own trailing year. σ (the z-score) counts standard deviations from its norm — |z| ≥ 2 is unusual, 3σ shows up a few times a year. The percentile ranks today against the past year of same-length moves (0th = worst, 100th = best). Where a series has 3+ years of history, tooltips add the era ruler: how the move ranks against everything since 2020. Green means ahead of the index, red behind. Full definitions: methodology.

Horizon
The daily brief, by emailUnusual moves, leadership, rotation flags, and the factor table — one email at every US market close, plus a Saturday week-in-review. Read a sample brief →
Free. Unsubscribe anytime. Your email is never shared.

Rotation

Leadership by trailing 20-day return across long-only factor portfolios. Flips require 3 days of persistence before flagging.

Charts

Computed portfolio series, rebased to 0% at the start of the selected window (z-score and breadth modes show raw values). Click legend entries to toggle series. Powered by TradingView Lightweight Charts.

Performance table

Factor, spread, and sector series, watchlist-style. Click a column to sort; toggle scope and value. σ is the move z-scored vs that series' own trailing year (computed horizons only — MTD/YTD are fixed windows and show no σ). The basket table lives on the Baskets page.

Factor spread monitor

z = current move vs the trailing year of same-horizon moves of the same series; the thin bar marks the percentile. |z| ≥ 2 is the headline flag. Sorted by the selected horizon. The books behind these series — every constituent, weight, and monthly add/drop — are on the Factors page.

Factor1 day5 days20 days60 daysYTD
Low volatility+1.0% (+1.2σ)+4.4% (+2.7σ)+6.4% (+2.4σ)+3.2% (+1.4σ)+0.4%
Dividend yield+1.0% (+1.1σ)+3.8% (+2.1σ)+5.7% (+1.8σ)+1.1% (+0.4σ)+4.6%
Value+1.5% (+1.9σ)+3.7% (+2.1σ)+6.2% (+1.8σ)+8.5% (+2.0σ)+12.4%
Size+0.2% (+0.2σ)+0.5% (+0.1σ)-2.6% (-1.4σ)+3.5% (+0.1σ)+5.6%
Quality-0.4% (-2.2σ)-0.4% (-1.3σ)-0.5% (-1.2σ)+1.2% (+0.4σ)+2.5%
High beta-4.2% (-2.8σ)-8.9% (-3.0σ)-17.2% (-3.5σ)-3.9% (-1.4σ)+10.0%
Momentum-4.1% (-3.0σ)-7.5% (-3.1σ)-15.6% (-3.8σ)-0.5% (-0.7σ)+19.5%

Sector monitor

Cap-weighted GICS sectors vs benchmark across horizons, z-colored. Sorted by the selected horizon; hover or focus a cell for the percentile.

Factor correlation

Trailing correlation of the daily Q5−Q1 spread series. A block of deep blue means the factors are one crowded trade; red means they hedge each other.

Performance quilt

Monthly total returns of long-only factor portfolios, ranked best → worst, plus calendar YTD. Hover a cell to trace that factor across months. The outlined cell is the FW 3000.

Seasonality —

Estimate revisions

Are analysts raising or cutting numbers? Net revision breadth = share of FW 3000 constituents whose FY1 EPS consensus was raised minus lowered over the trailing 5 sessions (≥3 analysts covering, moves ≥0.1%). Computed from Factor Watch's own consensus archive — snapshotted daily since 2026-07-06 (17 sessions and counting), a series that cannot be bought or backfilled.

Latest (2026-07-28): 420 raised · 324 lowered of 1837 covered — net breadth +5%.

2026-07-13: net +6% (393↑ / 287↓ of 1802)2026-07-14: net +6% (411↑ / 304↓ of 1866)2026-07-15: net +5% (412↑ / 313↓ of 1865)2026-07-16: net +4% (417↑ / 342↓ of 1859)2026-07-17: net +2% (383↑ / 339↓ of 1856)2026-07-20: net +3% (379↑ / 327↓ of 1857)2026-07-21: net +2% (342↑ / 300↓ of 1828)2026-07-22: net +2% (354↑ / 309↓ of 1822)2026-07-23: net +1% (316↑ / 289↓ of 1830)2026-07-24: net +2% (327↑ / 285↓ of 1827)2026-07-27: net +5% (401↑ / 309↓ of 1822)2026-07-28: net +5% (420↑ / 324↓ of 1837)
2026-07-13net breadth, ±10%2026-07-28
SessionRaisedLoweredCoveredNet breadth
2026-07-284203241837+5%
2026-07-274013091822+5%
2026-07-243272851827+2%
2026-07-233162891830+1%
2026-07-223543091822+2%
2026-07-213423001828+2%
2026-07-203793271857+3%
2026-07-173833391856+2%
2026-07-164173421859+4%
2026-07-154123131865+5%

Who gets the upgrades — by factor quintile

Same breadth measured inside each factor's top and bottom quintile (membership as of the 2026-06-30 rebalance). A positive top-minus-bottom spread means the fundamental tape agrees with the factor.

FactorTop quintileBottom quintileTop − bottom
Momentum+14%-10%+24%
Quality+12%-4%+16%
Low vol+11%+5%+5%
High beta+9%+4%+5%
Value-3%+10%-13%
Div yield-3%+2%-5%
Size-4%+16%-20%
Made it this far? Get this in your inbox at every close — free.