Estimate revisions

as of 2026-10-16

Analysts raised FY1 EPS for 361 and lowered it for 410 of 2074 covered FW 3000 names over 5 sessions — net breadth -2.4% (13th percentile of the series so far) · 20-session breadth -1.9% · upgrades broadest in Energy (+22.6%) · among baskets, US Energy Complex (+54.8% of 31 covered) · Momentum top quintile +8.0% vs bottom -19.2%.

How to read this page
How to read this page

Every market day Factor Watch stores the analyst consensus for every constituent — a series nobody sells and nobody can backfill. Net revision breadth is the share of covered names whose consensus was raised minus the share lowered between two reads a Window apart, matched on the same fiscal year and counting only names with three or more analysts. FY1 is the nearest fiscal year still open on the snapshot date, FY2 the one after it. Breadth says how many names moved; the median and mean revision beside it say how far. Definitions: methodology §14.

Window

Revision monitor

Net revision breadth on the latest read, for every series and window: the share of covered names raised minus the share lowered. Color deepens with the size of the read; each cell carries its raised and lowered counts and where the read sits in the series so far. Select a cell to set the window and series below.

Series1d5d20d60d
EPS FY1-0.3%-2.4%-1.9%+16.1%
EPS FY2-0.7%-4.1%-2.0%+11.7%
Revenue FY1+0.5%+2.0%+3.3%+23.4%

Net breadth over time

EPS FY1 consensus, 5-session window: net breadth per session, 68 reads since 2026-07-13. Latest 2026-10-16: 361 raised · 410 lowered of 2074 covered.

Period
2026-07-13: net +6% (425↑ / 309↓ of 1784)2026-07-14: net +6% (440↑ / 331↓ of 1837)2026-07-15: net +6% (439↑ / 336↓ of 1836)2026-07-16: net +4% (443↑ / 363↓ of 1831)2026-07-17: net +3% (399↑ / 353↓ of 1828)2026-07-20: net +3% (384↑ / 335↓ of 1830)2026-07-21: net +2% (347↑ / 306↓ of 1802)2026-07-22: net +3% (361↑ / 316↓ of 1795)2026-07-23: net +2% (329↑ / 297↓ of 1802)2026-07-24: net +3% (351↑ / 302↓ of 1798)2026-07-27: net +5% (425↑ / 330↓ of 1776)2026-07-28: net +6% (448↑ / 348↓ of 1793)2026-07-29: net +6% (464↑ / 360↓ of 1793)2026-07-30: net +6% (491↑ / 380↓ of 1804)2026-07-31: net +11% (564↑ / 375↓ of 1790)2026-08-04: net +10% (533↑ / 346↓ of 1798)2026-08-05: net +10% (524↑ / 335↓ of 1805)2026-08-06: net +9% (465↑ / 296↓ of 1809)2026-08-07: net +10% (575↑ / 388↓ of 1792)2026-08-10: net +9% (490↑ / 331↓ of 1794)2026-08-11: net +4% (283↑ / 214↓ of 1780)2026-08-12: net +4% (283↑ / 214↓ of 1780)2026-08-13: net +4% (283↑ / 214↓ of 1776)2026-08-14: net +0% (2↑ / 1↓ of 1784)2026-08-17: net -0% (0↑ / 2↓ of 1801)2026-08-18: net -0% (0↑ / 4↓ of 1818)2026-08-19: net -0% (1↑ / 3↓ of 1819)2026-08-20: net +10% (705↑ / 527↓ of 1846)2026-08-21: net +11% (790↑ / 593↓ of 1861)2026-08-24: net +10% (792↑ / 611↓ of 1863)2026-08-25: net +10% (804↑ / 624↓ of 1877)2026-08-26: net +10% (813↑ / 626↓ of 1882)2026-08-27: net +2% (280↑ / 251↓ of 1894)2026-08-28: net +1% (188↑ / 173↓ of 1897)2026-08-31: net +3% (225↑ / 161↓ of 1900)2026-09-01: net +3% (201↑ / 141↓ of 1902)2026-09-02: net +3% (202↑ / 142↓ of 1901)2026-09-03: net +4% (256↑ / 180↓ of 1902)2026-09-04: net +4% (280↑ / 198↓ of 1894)2026-09-07: net +2% (219↑ / 188↓ of 1899)2026-09-08: net +1% (218↑ / 191↓ of 1908)2026-09-09: net +2% (236↑ / 193↓ of 1911)2026-09-10: net +3% (240↑ / 185↓ of 1907)2026-09-11: net +2% (233↑ / 199↓ of 1911)2026-09-14: net +2% (251↑ / 212↓ of 1912)2026-09-15: net +2% (269↑ / 223↓ of 1896)2026-09-16: net +2% (265↑ / 230↓ of 1895)2026-09-17: net +1% (244↑ / 233↓ of 1910)2026-09-18: net +1% (208↑ / 197↓ of 1910)2026-09-21: net +0% (210↑ / 207↓ of 1921)2026-09-22: net -1% (192↑ / 209↓ of 1918)2026-09-23: net -0% (218↑ / 219↓ of 1916)2026-09-24: net -1% (190↑ / 201↓ of 2071)2026-09-25: net -1% (230↑ / 248↓ of 2071)2026-09-28: net +0% (225↑ / 221↓ of 2074)2026-09-29: net -1% (229↑ / 247↓ of 2071)2026-09-30: net -2% (184↑ / 229↓ of 2072)2026-10-01: net -3% (211↑ / 267↓ of 2070)2026-10-02: net -1% (221↑ / 252↓ of 2078)2026-10-06: net -3% (280↑ / 346↓ of 2076)2026-10-07: net -2% (310↑ / 360↓ of 2076)2026-10-08: net -3% (338↑ / 400↓ of 2075)2026-10-09: net -4% (353↑ / 430↓ of 2077)2026-10-12: net -3% (380↑ / 448↓ of 2080)2026-10-13: net -3% (355↑ / 413↓ of 2073)2026-10-14: net -3% (348↑ / 418↓ of 2073)2026-10-15: net -2% (365↑ / 411↓ of 2071)2026-10-16: net -2% (361↑ / 410↓ of 2074)
2026-07-13net breadth, ±11%2026-10-16

2026-10-16 · 361 raised · 410 lowered of 2074 covered · net -2.4% · median revision +0.0% · mean (clipped ±10%) -0.0%

Consensus vs price

FW 3000: consensus EPS FY1 against price, both rebased to 100 at 2026-07-06, the first day both exist. The consensus index compounds the members' daily revisions over the book in force each day (cap-weighted); a fiscal-year roll or a membership change never moves it.

Period
2026-07-06rebased to 100 at 2026-07-062026-10-16
Consensus EPS FY1+9.2%Price+0.7%

2026-10-16 · consensus EPS FY1 +9.2% · price +0.7% since 2026-07-06 · 1965 covered names

Every portfolio over the period shown

Consensus, Price and their gap are measured over the same days: from the later of the period start and the portfolio's first consensus read. Price, period is the price change over the whole period shown, which matches the other pages.

PortfolioGroupConsensus EPS FY1Revenue FY1PricePrice − EPSPrice, periodCovered
FW 3000Index+9.2%+6.2%+0.7%−8.5 pts+0.7%1965
Momentum long bookFactor long books+10.4%+7.7%-10.8%−21.2 pts-10.8%384
Value long bookFactor long books+0.8%+0.5%+0.1%−0.8 pts+0.1%321
Quality long bookFactor long books+6.6%+6.6%+2.5%−4.1 pts+2.5%419
Size long bookFactor long books-2.3%-1.3%-8.7%−6.4 pts-8.7%168
Low vol long bookFactor long books+1.5%+1.7%+2.9%+1.5 pts+2.9%364
High beta long bookFactor long books+11.0%+10.2%-13.0%−24.0 pts-13.0%373
Div yield long bookFactor long books+0.1%+1.0%+2.1%+2.1 pts+2.1%339
Basic MaterialsSectors-2.1%-0.2%-4.8%−2.7 pts-4.8%82
Communication ServicesSectors-2.9%+1.4%-1.0%+1.9 pts-1.0%62
Consumer CyclicalSectors+1.9%+1.9%-4.4%−6.3 pts-4.4%201
Consumer DefensiveSectors-1.2%-0.2%+5.7%+6.8 pts+5.7%82
EnergySectors+8.9%+6.6%+24.1%+15.3 pts+24.1%87
Financial ServicesSectors+3.8%+1.8%-1.8%−5.6 pts-1.8%336
HealthcareSectors+0.2%+1.5%+6.3%+6.1 pts+6.3%388
IndustrialsSectors+30.5%+7.5%-10.1%−40.6 pts-10.1%278
Real EstateSectors-0.1%+2.0%-5.6%−5.5 pts-5.6%90
TechnologySectors+13.6%+11.7%+3.4%−10.2 pts+3.4%294
UtilitiesSectors-0.9%+0.2%-6.1%−5.3 pts-6.1%55
AI Displacement RiskBaskets+0.4%+0.0%+29.2%+28.8 pts+29.2%12
AI Infrastructure LeadersBaskets+14.3%+13.7%-17.8%−32.0 pts-17.8%27
AI Software & PlatformsBaskets+1.8%+1.4%+14.5%+12.7 pts+14.5%20
CybersecurityBaskets+3.4%+1.9%+9.1%+5.7 pts+9.1%13
Memory & StorageBaskets+6.2%+4.9%-12.5%−18.7 pts-24.0%5
Optical InterconnectBaskets+8.7%+6.6%-11.2%−20.0 pts-21.9%7
RetailBaskets+0.1%+0.2%+7.1%+7.1 pts+7.1%29
Travel & ExperiencesBaskets-7.6%+0.4%-11.3%−3.8 pts-11.3%24
Nuclear RenaissanceBaskets-3.1%-4.5%-13.5%−10.3 pts-21.7%12
Power & Grid BuildoutBaskets-0.3%+1.8%-16.7%−16.4 pts-16.7%19
US Energy ComplexBaskets+7.1%+4.6%+21.4%+14.3 pts+21.4%30
Capital Markets CycleBaskets+2.8%+1.7%-4.0%−6.9 pts-4.0%35
Crypto FinancializationBaskets-22.8%-2.5%-14.4%+8.5 pts-16.3%15
Payments & FintechBaskets+0.3%+2.6%+1.3%+1.0 pts+1.3%18
Regional BanksBaskets+1.8%+0.0%-8.0%−9.9 pts-8.0%18
GLP-1 PressureBaskets-1.0%-0.9%+5.1%+6.0 pts+5.1%25
Hospitals & ProvidersBaskets+0.1%+0.1%+9.5%+9.3 pts+7.7%13
Managed Care & Health InsurersBaskets+6.0%+0.6%-9.2%−15.2 pts-9.2%8
Defense & AerospaceBaskets+2.0%+2.8%-9.7%−11.8 pts-9.7%22
Reshoring & Industrial CapexBaskets-1.3%-0.2%-5.3%−4.0 pts-5.3%22
Space EconomyBaskets-12.3%+2.5%-8.7%+3.6 pts-23.3%18
Commodity ProducersBaskets+2.4%+0.1%-7.5%−10.0 pts+8.4%37
DefensivesBaskets-0.3%-0.3%+0.5%+0.9 pts+0.5%30
Fortress Balance SheetsBaskets+2.5%+4.1%+7.6%+5.2 pts+7.6%25
HomebuildersBaskets-2.6%-1.0%-14.1%−11.5 pts-18.4%11
Housing ChainBaskets-1.7%-0.3%-12.2%−10.4 pts-12.2%25
Magnificent SevenBaskets+7.0%+7.8%+8.5%+1.6 pts+8.5%7

Where the revisions are

The same breadth inside each factor's top and bottom quintile (committed membership from the latest monthly rebalance), inside each sector and inside each thematic basket (current members), for the selected series and window. A positive top − bottom gap means analysts agree with the factor.

By factor quintile

FactorTop quintileBottom quintileTop − bottom
Momentum+8.0%-19.2%+27.3 pts
Quality+4.9%-3.5%+8.4 pts
Low vol+1.4%-2.3%+3.6 pts
Size-0.5%+5.5%−6.0 pts
High beta-6.2%+9.6%−15.8 pts
Div yield-9.6%+0.0%−9.6 pts
Value-16.6%+1.3%−17.9 pts

By sector

SectorRaisedLoweredCoveredNet breadth
Energy502993+22.6%
Utilities14656+14.3%
Technology3524317+3.5%
Healthcare7359417+3.4%
Unknown1110+0.0%
Financial Services6675337-2.7%
Industrials4558289-4.5%
Communication Services101365-4.6%
Real Estate1926102-6.9%
Consumer Defensive81885-11.8%
Basic Materials173088-14.8%
Consumer Cyclical2371215-22.3%

By basket

BasketCategoryRaisedLoweredCoveredNet breadth
US Energy ComplexEnergy & Power22531+54.8%
Memory & StorageAI & Technology205+40.0%
Reshoring & Industrial CapexIndustrials & Defense9422+22.7%
Commodity ProducersMacro & Rates231440+22.5%
Fortress Balance SheetsMacro & Rates7225+20.0%
AI Infrastructure LeadersAI & Technology6127+18.5%
Regional BanksFinancials4218+11.1%
Managed Care & Health InsurersHealth219+11.1%
Crypto FinancializationFinancials5415+6.7%
RetailConsumer2129+3.5%
CybersecurityAI & Technology1114+0.0%
Optical InterconnectAI & Technology007+0.0%
Payments & FintechFinancials3318+0.0%
Hospitals & ProvidersHealth1113+0.0%
AI Software & PlatformsAI & Technology0220-10.0%
DefensivesMacro & Rates2530-10.0%
Power & Grid BuildoutEnergy & Power2419-10.5%
Capital Markets CycleFinancials121735-14.3%
Nuclear RenaissanceEnergy & Power2413-15.4%
AI Displacement RiskAI & Technology1312-16.7%
GLP-1 PressureHealth1625-20.0%
Defense & AerospaceIndustrials & Defense2722-22.7%
Magnificent SevenReference027-28.6%
Travel & ExperiencesConsumer31024-29.2%
Housing ChainMacro & Rates11025-36.0%
HomebuildersMacro & Rates0511-45.5%
Space EconomyIndustrials & Defense0919-47.4%

Biggest revisions

The largest relative changes in EPS FY1 consensus over the 5-session window ending 2026-10-16, each direction, among names with at least 3 analysts and a consensus base of at least $0.25 before the change.

Raised most

TickerCompanySectorYearConsensus, before → afterChangeAnalysts
NRIXNurix Therapeutics, Inc.HealthcareFY2026−2.70 → 1.90+170.4%3
CVICVR Energy, Inc.EnergyFY20262.13 → 3.24+52.2%3
ALECAlector, Inc.HealthcareFY2026−0.72 → −0.38+46.7%5
SGHTSight Sciences, Inc.HealthcareFY2026−0.64 → −0.39+38.8%3
SVRASavara Inc.HealthcareFY2026−0.99 → −0.64+35.9%6
KKRKKR & Co. Inc.Financial ServicesFY20266.32 → 8.25+30.6%6
MCSThe Marcus CorporationCommunication ServicesFY20260.76 → 0.94+22.9%3
TALOTalos Energy Inc.EnergyFY20261.33 → 1.59+19.6%3
MURMurphy Oil CorporationEnergyFY20263.22 → 3.85+19.5%8
SLGSL Green Realty Corp.Real EstateFY2026−1.99 → −1.68+15.9%4
VTVTvTv Therapeutics Inc.HealthcareFY2026−1.41 → −1.21+14.3%5
DKDelek US Holdings, Inc.EnergyFY202615.27 → 17.21+12.7%7
RUNSunrun Inc.EnergyFY20261.20 → 1.33+11.2%9
AIIAmerican Integrity Insurance Group, Inc.Financial ServicesFY20263.88 → 4.30+11.0%4
NVAXNovavax, Inc.HealthcareFY2026−0.74 → −0.67+9.3%7

Lowered most

TickerCompanySectorYearConsensus, before → afterChangeAnalysts
ARIApollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.Real EstateFY20260.49 → −2.35-579.6%3
MSGSMadison Square Garden Sports Corp.Communication ServicesFY2027−0.86 → −1.06-23.7%5
DCHDauch Corp.Consumer CyclicalFY20261.02 → 0.80-21.6%7
GTThe Goodyear Tire & Rubber CompanyConsumer CyclicalFY2026−0.68 → −0.81-18.4%4
RAREUltragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.HealthcareFY2026−3.97 → −4.60-15.9%11
LQDALiquidia CorporationHealthcareFY20262.48 → 2.09-15.8%6
ABRArbor Realty TrustReal EstateFY20260.27 → 0.23-14.8%4
XEX-Energy, Inc. Class A Common StockIndustrialsFY2026−0.75 → −0.85-13.6%4
CRKComstock Resources, Inc.EnergyFY20260.34 → 0.31-10.2%5
WLKWestlake CorporationBasic MaterialsFY20262.36 → 2.12-10.2%9
STUBStubHub Holdings, Inc.Communication ServicesFY20260.32 → 0.29-10.0%4
MOSThe Mosaic CompanyBasic MaterialsFY20260.44 → 0.39-9.8%9
SHOSunstone Hotel Investors, Inc.Real EstateFY20260.30 → 0.27-9.6%3
LIFEEthos Technologies Inc.Financial ServicesFY2026−2.08 → −2.28-9.5%3
BMYBristol-Myers Squibb CompanyHealthcareFY20266.95 → 6.32-9.1%17

Coverage

What the archive holds on the latest snapshot, and the slow-moving context behind the reads: which fiscal year "FY1" is for these names, how many analysts stand behind a consensus, and how far apart they sit.

MeasureLatest snapshot
Snapshots73 sessions since 2026-07-06
Names with estimates2872 · FY1 open for 2830 · FY2 for 2806
Covered by 3+ analysts (FY1 EPS)2081 · median 6 analysts
Fiscal year behind “FY1”FY2026 2322 · FY2027 507 · FY2028 1
Analyst coverage, 5 sessions207 names gained analysts · 135 lost · of 2806
Estimate dispersion (FY1 EPS)7.1% median high − low as a share of consensus · 16.3% at 2026-07-06

Reading this page

Net revision breadth
Share of covered names whose consensus rose by at least 0.1% minus the share whose consensus fell by at least that, between two snapshots a Window apart. Names covered by fewer than three analysts are excluded; a fiscal-year roll is never counted as a revision.
Window
Sessions between the two consensus reads: 1, 5, 20 or 60. A wider window catches slower revisions and reads higher in absolute terms, so compare a read with its own window's history, not across windows. The trend chart's Period only sets how much history is shown.
Series
EPS FY1 is the consensus for the nearest fiscal year still open on the snapshot date, EPS FY2 the year after it, Revenue FY1 the same year's revenue consensus. The Coverage section shows which calendar years FY1 currently maps to.
Median and mean revision
The median relative change across covered names, and the mean with each name clipped at ±10% so a near-zero base cannot dominate. Breadth counts names; these measure distance.
Percentile
Where the latest read ranks among all reads of the same series and window so far, quoted once 40 reads exist. The archive began 2026-06-10, so this is a young distribution.
Consensus index (vs price)
Period sets the span of the chart; the price line runs back through it while the consensus line begins where the archive does, and both are rebased to 100 on the first day they share. For each portfolio, the members' relative consensus changes between consecutive snapshots, averaged with the portfolio's own weights (cap-weighted for the index, sectors and factor long books, with the long books' 5% single-name cap; equal-weighted baskets) over the book in force that day, and compounded from 100. Membership follows the basket add and remove dates and the factor rebalance history, so editing a basket re-dates its series automatically. It measures revisions only: a fiscal-year roll or a membership change never moves it. Price is the same portfolio's committed return series, both rebased to 100 at the first day of the period. EPS names within ±$0.25 of zero sit out of the average that day and single-name changes are capped at ±50%; the revenue index carries every covered name.
Factor quintiles, sectors and baskets
Breadth inside each factor's top and bottom quintile as committed at the latest monthly rebalance, inside each sector with at least five covered names, and inside each thematic basket's current members with at least three covered names (ETF allocations carry no estimates). Top − bottom is in percentage points. Small baskets swing on a name or two; the covered count is beside every read.
Biggest revisions
The largest relative consensus changes in the latest read, each direction. EPS names whose consensus before the change was within ±$0.25 of zero are left out: a few cents on a near-zero base is a rounding story.
Sources and caveats
Consensus levels come from the vendor's estimate aggregation and can move when analysts are added or dropped, not only when targets change; the thresholds damp but do not remove this. Full spec: methodology §14.