Software businesses positioned to monetize AI through existing distribution: copilots attached to installed bases, agent platforms, and the EDA/design tools that themselves get an AI productivity kicker. The bet is that distribution beats model quality.
Follow the theme against the wider market.
Series before each basket's creation date are a backtest of the membership as of creation; live tracking starts at creation.
| Return | 1 day | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days | MTD | YTD | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basket | -3.2% | -2.5% | +4.6% | +22.3% | +2.3% | -4.0% | -3.2% |
| vs S&P 500 | -2.1% | -0.6% | +4.5% | +17.9% | +2.0% | -14.6% | -16.1% |
1y · 2025-10-16 – 2026-10-16 · 252 / 252 sessions
Basket total returns · Annualized using 252 trading sessions · 0% risk-free rate and downside target. As of 2026-10-16 · close.
Sharpe: average daily simple return divided by its sample standard deviation, multiplied by √252. The risk-free rate is assumed to be 0%; this is not a cash-adjusted ratio.
Sortino: average daily simple return divided by downside deviation, multiplied by √252. Downside deviation is the square root of the average squared shortfall below 0%, counting all sessions, including zeros for gains.
Historical volatility: √(252 × average squared daily log return), matching the Vol page’s realized-volatility convention. This differs from the sample standard deviation used in Sharpe.
Each period requires complete history and at least 5 sessions. MTD and YTD follow the calendar; 1y is 252 sessions. Missing data or an undefined ratio displays — with a reason. Short periods can produce unstable ratios; intraday snapshots include a partial session. History before this basket’s creation is backtested. If a new basket has no stored daily return series yet, estimates from its rounded published chart levels are marked ≈.
Current members and the reasoning behind each inclusion. Returns are for individual holdings.
| Why it’s included | Added | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNPSSynopsys | AI-assisted chip design; sells shovels to the silicon boom | -2.9% | -10.9% | +18.1% | -3.2% | 2026-06-11 |
| CDNSCadence Design Systems | Same EDA duopoly economics as SNPS | -1.5% | -9.5% | +12.9% | +2.2% | 2026-06-11 |
| ADSKAutodesk | Design/make platform with an AI productivity kicker | -2.1% | +1.9% | +10.6% | -19.0% | 2026-06-11 |
| INTUIntuit | AI assistants on top of tax/accounting data moat | -1.5% | +7.4% | +7.7% | -50.2% | 2026-06-11 |
| DDOGDatadog | Observability for AI workloads; LLM monitoring attach | -7.2% | -15.7% | +7.5% | +81.7% | 2026-06-11 |
| MSFTMicrosoft | Copilot distribution across Office/Azure/GitHub | -1.9% | -1.1% | +7.1% | +10.1% | 2026-06-11 |
| METAMeta Platforms | AI-driven ad targeting and engagement flywheel | -3.7% | -1.3% | +6.6% | +7.7% | 2026-06-11 |
| NOWServiceNow | Workflow automation is the natural agent surface | -4.4% | +0.8% | +4.8% | -7.3% | 2026-06-11 |
| PLTRPalantir Technologies | AIP land-and-expand in enterprise + government | -7.2% | -11.0% | +4.7% | +4.7% | 2026-06-11 |
| CRMSalesforce | Agentforce attach to the CRM installed base | -2.5% | +5.0% | +1.2% | -8.5% | 2026-06-11 |
| IBMIBM | watsonx plus consulting distribution into regulated enterprises | -0.9% | +2.2% | +1.1% | -20.0% | 2026-06-11 |
| ADBEAdobe Inc. | Firefly monetization vs disruption — the contested one | -2.6% | +1.2% | -1.5% | -29.9% | 2026-06-11 |
| WDAYWorkday, Inc. | HR/finance copilots attached to an enterprise installed base | -3.0% | +2.3% | -1.6% | -11.2% | 2026-06-11 |
| GOOGLAlphabet Inc. (Class A) | Gemini + search distribution + TPU vertical integration | -2.5% | -3.1% | -2.6% | +9.0% | 2026-06-11 |
| APPAppLovin Corporation | AI-driven ad engine (Axon) compounding on its own data | -4.7% | -3.9% | -13.6% | -60.5% | 2026-06-11 |
Partial price histories: APP from 2021-04-15, PLTR from 2020-09-30.
Equal-weighted; monthly rebalance, buy-and-hold between rebalances; dated membership changes reset the target weights.
Tracked since 2026-06-11. Membership decisions are documented below.
Read the methodology →Basket returns include dividends. “vs S&P 500” compares the basket’s compounded growth with the benchmark’s. Green means positive; red means negative.
Cross-checked against IGV. Daily return correlation: 0.96 across 1707 sessions. includes large software names outside the S&P 500
ESTC removed — Elastic is Netherlands-domiciled and screened out of the FW 3000, so the 2026-06-12 broad pass added it in error; the pipeline has flagged it as missing/ex-universe since. Entry deleted outright rather than closed with a removed date: it never had tape, so no computed history is restated. Data-layer exposure continues via SNOW and MDB.
FW 3000 pass: added SNOW, MDB, GTLB, HUBS, NTNX, ESTC — names outside the S&P 500 but inside our broad universe; they count only in the FW 3000 version of this basket. Effective-dated to creation so the broad backtest covers the full set. The S&P 500 basket is unchanged.
Widening pass: added WDAY, DDOG, APP, ADSK, IBM — the application-software layer beyond the original copilot/EDA core. Reference pinned to IGV. New members are effective-dated to basket creation so the backtest and the reference correlation cover the widened set (the basket was one day old, with no meaningful live history to restate).
Initial composition: 10 names. ADBE included deliberately as the contested disruption-vs-monetization case.