AI Software & Platforms
Software businesses positioned to monetize AI through existing distribution: copilots attached to installed bases, agent platforms, and the EDA/design tools that themselves get an AI productivity kicker. The bet is that distribution beats model quality.
Performance
Follow the theme against the wider market.
Series before each basket's creation date are a backtest of the membership as of creation; live tracking starts at creation.
| Return | 1 day | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days | MTD | YTD | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basket | -2.7% | -4.3% | +3.3% | +15.7% | -4.2% | -1.6% | -0.2% |
| vs FW 3000 | -2.4% | -4.5% | +3.7% | +8.8% | -4.7% | -13.2% | -16.1% |
Inside the basket · 20 stocks
Current members and the reasoning behind each inclusion. Returns are for individual stocks.
| Why it’s included | Added | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRM | Agentforce attach to the CRM installed base | -2.0% | +1.3% | +34.5% | -1.6% | 2026-06-11 |
| GTLB | DevSecOps platform with AI coding attach | +1.1% | +11.1% | +27.9% | +32.8% | 2026-06-11 |
| HUBS | SMB CRM with embedded AI agents | -2.9% | -5.0% | +17.7% | -38.3% | 2026-06-11 |
| NOW | Workflow automation is the natural agent surface | -3.0% | -2.4% | +13.1% | -7.8% | 2026-06-11 |
| WDAY | HR/finance copilots attached to an enterprise installed base | -5.4% | -4.4% | +9.0% | -8.8% | 2026-06-11 |
| NTNX | Hybrid-cloud platform for enterprise AI | -0.0% | -1.6% | +8.6% | +31.7% | 2026-06-11 |
| META | AI-driven ad targeting and engagement flywheel | +1.0% | +6.7% | +4.2% | -6.4% | 2026-06-11 |
| INTU | AI assistants on top of tax/accounting data moat | -3.4% | -7.1% | +2.3% | -49.3% | 2026-06-11 |
| SNOW | Data cloud — the AI data layer | -5.4% | +2.8% | +2.0% | +53.7% | 2026-06-11 |
| PLTR | AIP land-and-expand in enterprise + government | -4.5% | -6.4% | +1.4% | -1.9% | 2026-06-11 |
| ADBE | Firefly monetization vs disruption — the contested one | -6.7% | -8.6% | +0.5% | -23.9% | 2026-06-11 |
| MSFT | Copilot distribution across Office/Azure/GitHub | -2.0% | -2.7% | +0.1% | +4.0% | 2026-06-11 |
| IBM | watsonx plus consulting distribution into regulated enterprises | +0.1% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -19.1% | 2026-06-11 |
| GOOGL | Gemini + search distribution + TPU vertical integration | -1.1% | -2.3% | -4.4% | +8.3% | 2026-06-11 |
| SNPS | AI-assisted chip design; sells shovels to the silicon boom | -5.4% | -11.0% | -5.3% | -16.1% | 2026-06-11 |
| MDB | Document database for AI apps | -4.1% | -17.4% | -7.5% | -12.1% | 2026-06-11 |
| APP | AI-driven ad engine (Axon) compounding on its own data | +2.2% | +0.9% | -7.6% | -52.4% | 2026-06-11 |
| DDOG | Observability for AI workloads; LLM monitoring attach | -0.9% | -10.1% | -9.0% | +56.6% | 2026-06-11 |
| ADSK | Design/make platform with an AI productivity kicker | -8.3% | -16.4% | -12.5% | -26.4% | 2026-06-11 |
| CDNS | Same EDA duopoly economics as SNPS | -4.0% | -14.0% | -13.7% | -6.4% | 2026-06-11 |
Partial price histories: APP from 2021-04-15, GTLB from 2021-10-14, PLTR from 2020-09-30, SNOW from 2020-09-16.
How this basket is built
Equal-weighted, monthly-rebalanced, buy-and-hold between rebalances; dated membership changes take effect same-day.
Tracked since 2026-06-11. Membership decisions are documented below.
Read the methodology →Reading the returns
Basket returns include dividends. “vs FW 3000” compares the basket’s compounded growth with the benchmark’s. Green means positive; red means negative.
Cross-checked against IGV. Daily return correlation: 0.96 across 1678 sessions. includes large software names outside the S&P 500
Membership history & changes
- correction
ESTC removed — Elastic is Netherlands-domiciled and screened out of the FW 3000, so the 2026-06-12 broad pass added it in error; the pipeline has flagged it as missing/ex-universe since. Entry deleted outright rather than closed with a removed date: it never had tape, so no computed history is restated. Data-layer exposure continues via SNOW and MDB.
- expand
FW 3000 pass: added SNOW, MDB, GTLB, HUBS, NTNX, ESTC — names outside the S&P 500 but inside our broad universe; they count only in the FW 3000 version of this basket. Effective-dated to creation so the broad backtest covers the full set. The S&P 500 basket is unchanged.
- expand
Widening pass: added WDAY, DDOG, APP, ADSK, IBM — the application-software layer beyond the original copilot/EDA core. Reference pinned to IGV. New members are effective-dated to basket creation so the backtest and the reference correlation cover the widened set (the basket was one day old, with no meaningful live history to restate).
- create
Initial composition: 10 names. ADBE included deliberately as the contested disruption-vs-monetization case.