GLP-1 Pressure
Business models the market discounts when GLP-1 adoption accelerates: indulgent packaged food and drinks, alcohol, quick-service restaurants, and the medical devices treating obesity comorbidities (sleep apnea, diabetes hardware, dialysis). A monitoring list for underperformance — not a recommendation in either direction.
Performance
Follow the theme against the wider market.
Series before each basket's creation date are a backtest of the membership as of creation; live tracking starts at creation.
| Return | 1 day | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days | MTD | YTD | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basket | -1.0% | -2.5% | -1.0% | +10.8% | -2.0% | +2.2% | -2.7% |
| vs FW 3000 | -0.7% | -2.7% | -0.6% | +4.2% | -2.5% | -9.8% | -18.3% |
Inside the basket · 26 stocks
Current members and the reasoning behind each inclusion. Returns are for individual stocks.
| Why it’s included | Added | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KDP | Carbonated soft drinks | -0.9% | +1.3% | +8.6% | +19.2% | 2026-06-11 |
| RMD | Sleep apnea devices — the original GLP-1 casualty trade | -0.4% | -5.0% | +8.1% | -4.4% | 2026-06-11 |
| SJM | Sweet snacking (Hostess) plus spreads | -1.9% | -4.7% | +5.9% | +32.9% | 2026-06-11 |
| INSP | Sleep-apnea devices — weight loss treats the comorbidity (Inspire) | +1.5% | +2.7% | +4.9% | -31.6% | 2026-06-11 |
| PODD | Insulin pumps, same debate | -2.0% | +1.6% | +4.5% | -48.1% | 2026-06-11 |
| GIS | Packaged food basket weight | -2.5% | -7.8% | +3.8% | -13.6% | 2026-06-11 |
| DXCM | CGM: diabetes incidence debate | -2.0% | -3.2% | +3.7% | +32.4% | 2026-06-11 |
| CAG | Frozen and snacking portfolio (Slim Jim, Banquet) — re-enters as a broad member after leaving the S&P 500 | -0.9% | -3.8% | +2.4% | -5.5% | 2026-07-21 |
| EAT | Casual dining (Brinker/Chili’s) | +0.6% | +0.0% | +2.2% | +60.4% | 2026-06-11 |
| UTZ | Salty snacks pure play | -0.1% | +0.1% | +0.7% | +39.3% | 2026-06-11 |
| DVA | Dialysis: long-tail kidney-disease exposure | +1.3% | +1.8% | +0.1% | +61.9% | 2026-06-11 |
| PEP | Frito-Lay salty snacks plus sugary drinks | -0.7% | -1.4% | +0.1% | -1.2% | 2026-06-11 |
| YUM | QSR portfolio (KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut) | -1.2% | -2.0% | -0.0% | +0.6% | 2026-06-11 |
| KHC | Processed food skew | -0.7% | -1.8% | -0.3% | +7.8% | 2026-06-11 |
| MDLZ | Snacking exposure | -0.3% | -1.7% | -2.1% | +15.8% | 2026-06-11 |
| DPZ | Pizza delivery — indulgence occasions | -1.7% | -2.6% | -2.8% | -17.3% | 2026-06-11 |
| HSY | Confectionery volume risk | -1.1% | -3.3% | -4.3% | -2.7% | 2026-06-11 |
| BF-B | Spirits — alcohol-pullback risk | -2.8% | -1.0% | -5.5% | +5.3% | 2026-06-11 |
| TAP | Beer volumes — GLP-1 users drink less | -0.2% | -2.3% | -5.5% | -10.3% | 2026-06-11 |
| STZ | Beer/wine/spirits — alcohol-pullback risk | -0.7% | -1.9% | -5.6% | -5.1% | 2026-06-11 |
| MCD | QSR traffic under appetite suppression | -1.5% | -2.8% | -6.2% | -14.7% | 2026-06-11 |
| WING | QSR wings — indulgence occasions (Wingstop) | -1.0% | -3.8% | -6.2% | -53.9% | 2026-06-11 |
| CPB | Snacks + meals exposure — re-enters as a broad member after leaving the S&P 500 | -3.4% | -8.6% | -7.2% | -19.4% | 2026-07-21 |
| JJSF | Snacks and frozen treats (J&J Snack Foods) | -2.2% | -5.8% | -8.5% | -5.0% | 2026-06-11 |
| TXRH | Casual dining (Texas Roadhouse) | +0.3% | -4.4% | -8.5% | +15.6% | 2026-06-11 |
| TNDM | Insulin pumps — GLP-1 substitution risk (Tandem) | -2.6% | -7.1% | -11.1% | -9.5% | 2026-06-11 |
How this basket is built
Equal-weighted, monthly-rebalanced, buy-and-hold between rebalances; dated membership changes take effect same-day.
Tracked since 2026-06-11. Membership decisions are documented below.
Read the methodology →Reading the returns
Basket returns include dividends. “vs FW 3000” compares the basket’s compounded growth with the benchmark’s. Green means positive; red means negative.
Membership history & changes
- drop
CAG and CPB left the S&P 500 (index demotions, caught by the pipeline's constituent check). Both remain FW 3000 constituents and move to broad entries, as ZION, MOH, and MHK did — the FW 3000 version is unchanged, the S&P version thins to 17. Packaged-food demotions from the index are the GLP-1 pressure thesis playing out in slow motion.
- expand
FW 3000 pass: added UTZ, JJSF, WING, EAT, TXRH, TNDM, INSP — names outside the S&P 500 but inside our broad universe; they count only in the FW 3000 version of this basket. Effective-dated to creation so the broad backtest covers the full set. The S&P 500 basket is unchanged.
- expand
Widening pass: added the rest of indulgent food and drink (CAG, SJM, PEP, KDP), the alcohol leg (TAP, STZ, BF-B), and quick-service restaurants (MCD, YUM, DPZ). No clean inverse-theme ETF exists; the basket stays a watchlist. New members are effective-dated to basket creation so the backtest and the reference correlation cover the widened set (the basket was one day old, with no meaningful live history to restate).
- create
Pressured names only; LLY alone is not a basket. Monitoring list, not a recommendation.