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The clock
Growth across, inflation up. Each cell shows the market's return per year while in that state since 1958. Select a cell to see its record. Nowcast as of 2026-11-12; released months through 2026-09.
NowcastWeekly pathLast 12 released monthsEstimated month, data not yet finalBelow the long-run averageAbove it
All months since 1958.
Current cell
Growth steady, inflation steady
Select another cell on the clock to compare.
The market in this cell since 1958
Return / yr13.0%all months 11.7%
90% range9.9 to 16.3%block bootstrap
Worst drawdown−12%inside a spell
Next 12 months14.1%10th percentile −5.7%
In recession3%of months
Months · spells275 · 9233% of months since 1958
When the economy was here (blue), recessions shaded.
Where it goes next
Twelve months laterfrom a month in this cell
RisingSteadyFalling
4%
18%
3%
6%
42%
7%
6%
13%
2%
Decel.SteadyAccel.
Three months aheadfrom today's reading
RisingSteadyFalling
0%
8%
8%
2%
26%
21%
1%
19%
14%
Decel.SteadyAccel.
Inflation up, growth across; the outlined cell is the starting point. Neither is a forecast.
Returns in this cell
Factor Watch portfolios
In Growth steady, inflation steady · since Jan 2020
Long-history assets
In Growth steady, inflation steady · since 1958
Factors and assets
Industries
History
Growth and inflation month by month, each as a percentile of its own history, with recessions shaded. The lines at 33 and 67 are the clock's cell boundaries.
The history chart draws with JavaScript; the clock and the cell record carry the current reading.
Growth, monthly
Inflation, monthly
Weekly nowcast, last year (dashed)
Recession
0 to 100: percentile of history
Behind the reading
All nine cellsBest in growth accelerating, inflation decelerating at 24.5% a year, worst in growth decelerating, inflation accelerating at −2.2%
The market in each cell since 1958
| Cell | Months · spells | Return / yr | 90% range | Worst drawdown | Next 12 mo | In recession |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 · 15 | −2.2% | −11.9 to 8.7% | −11% | 9.3% | 66% | |
| 130 · 49 | 1.8% | −3.7 to 6.8% | −28% | 6.8% | 5% | |
| 36 · 15 | 10.6% | 5.0 to 15.9% | −7% | 7.4% | 0% | |
| 58 · 27 | 16.9% | 5.7 to 28.3% | −21% | 13.1% | 48% | |
| current | 275 · 92 | 13.0% | 9.9 to 16.3% | −12% | 14.1% | 3% |
| 71 · 32 | 5.9% | −1.3 to 13.3% | −13% | 8.8% | 3% | |
| 54 · 19 | 16.5% | 6.8 to 25.3% | −22% | 25.9% | 44% | |
| 118 · 53 | 17.9% | 12.1 to 23.7% | −9% | 11.9% | 4% | |
| 44 · 15 | 24.5% | 19.4 to 29.3% | −5% | 9.0% | 0% |
Return, range and drawdown are measured while in the cell; the next-twelve-months column starts from a month in the cell. Spells, not months, are the effective sample. Select a cell's name to open its record on the clock.
Every portfolio in every cellEach factor book, spread and basket against the FW 3000, cell by cell
Every portfolio in every cell
| Portfolio | G decel. · I rising 4 mo | G steady · I rising 10 mo | G accel. · I rising 9 mo | G decel. · I steady 4 mo | G steady · I steady 25 mo | G accel. · I steady 3 mo | G decel. · I falling 8 mo | G steady · I falling 18 mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum Factor, long book | −2.1% | +3.9% | −17.9% | −2.1% | +3.6% | +6.6% | −7.0% | +16.2% |
| Momentum Factor, Q5 − Q1 spread | +33.9% | +14.0% | −2.8% | +19.7% | −8.4% | −49.5% | −49.5% | +17.5% |
| Value Factor, long book | −6.3% | +36.1% | +1.2% | −57.0% | −0.3% | +45.6% | +9.7% | −3.4% |
| Value Factor, Q5 − Q1 spread | +16.7% | +66.1% | +32.1% | −92.6% | −17.5% | −20.8% | −0.5% | −3.9% |
| Quality Factor, long book | +4.2% | −3.4% | +10.2% | +9.3% | +0.4% | −20.6% | +2.7% | +8.5% |
| Quality Factor, Q5 − Q1 spread | +7.6% | +14.6% | +4.0% | +16.9% | −19.6% | −109.2% | −33.3% | +9.2% |
| Size Factor, long book | +7.5% | +0.8% | +2.2% | −39.6% | +16.2% | +104.9% | +39.4% | −7.9% |
| Size Factor, Q5 − Q1 spread | +15.5% | −4.3% | +7.7% | +3.9% | +30.2% | +127.1% | +57.0% | +2.6% |
| Low vol Factor, long book | −2.7% | +14.0% | +11.0% | +1.7% | −16.0% | −27.7% | −10.1% | +3.0% |
| Low vol Factor, Q5 − Q1 spread | −7.0% | +43.2% | +10.0% | −13.6% | −45.5% | −179.0% | −82.3% | −11.4% |
| High beta Factor, long book | +7.9% | −28.3% | −5.0% | −28.4% | +25.3% | +63.3% | +24.8% | +8.9% |
| High beta Factor, Q5 − Q1 spread | +10.2% | −39.4% | −2.9% | −25.9% | +32.1% | +78.2% | +25.6% | +5.6% |
| Div yield Factor, long book | −10.7% | +34.9% | +4.5% | −49.4% | −9.6% | +9.4% | −5.6% | −3.8% |
| Div yield Factor, Q5 − Q1 spread | −1.7% | +28.6% | +13.5% | −69.1% | −16.2% | −63.0% | −22.1% | −3.0% |
| AI Displacement Risk Basket | +9.3% | +28.6% | +15.5% | −42.1% | −30.6% | +24.9% | +14.0% | −24.8% |
| AI Infrastructure Leaders Basket | +24.3% | +10.2% | −6.7% | +20.0% | +52.0% | +72.9% | +42.8% | +43.2% |
| AI Software & Platforms Basket | +34.3% | −15.1% | +7.7% | +10.0% | −0.8% | +35.7% | +37.1% | +19.6% |
| Capital Markets Cycle Basket | +13.3% | +4.0% | +8.4% | −17.9% | +8.3% | +17.2% | +13.0% | −3.3% |
| Commodity Producers Basket | +34.9% | +48.8% | +4.2% | −75.0% | +0.3% | +151.6% | +76.9% | +8.4% |
| Crypto Financialization Basket | +122.5% | −95.0% | −12.7% | +99.6% | +99.9% | +600.5% | +65.7% | +26.9% |
| Cybersecurity Basket | +33.1% | +34.9% | +1.1% | +46.6% | −3.0% | +81.4% | +24.7% | +10.0% |
| Defense & Aerospace Basket | −22.9% | +12.1% | −5.8% | −24.6% | +13.1% | +62.4% | −10.5% | +16.1% |
| Defensives Basket | −12.0% | +25.3% | +13.1% | +16.3% | −22.3% | −53.6% | −21.3% | −6.6% |
| US Energy Complex Basket | +36.0% | +71.2% | −13.2% | −149.3% | −9.3% | +160.4% | +105.6% | +22.6% |
| Fortress Balance Sheets Basket | +9.0% | +0.2% | +5.5% | +35.9% | −5.0% | −14.4% | +20.3% | +10.9% |
| GLP-1 Pressure Basket | −24.3% | +9.9% | +4.3% | +33.4% | −23.8% | −9.4% | −1.6% | −7.1% |
| Homebuilders Basket | −2.4% | −3.1% | +4.7% | −29.9% | +1.0% | −7.8% | +84.4% | +5.5% |
| Hospitals & Providers Basket | −34.4% | +36.7% | +15.2% | −1.5% | −9.2% | +65.6% | +13.7% | −3.1% |
| Housing Chain Basket | +16.5% | −11.9% | +10.1% | −23.1% | −7.6% | −10.2% | +53.9% | +0.1% |
| Magnificent Seven Basket | +55.4% | −25.8% | +20.9% | +52.4% | +26.8% | +11.7% | +49.6% | +14.0% |
| Managed Care & Health Insurers Basket | −24.1% | +50.5% | −3.9% | +56.5% | −6.8% | −16.6% | −15.1% | −26.2% |
| Memory & Storage Basket | +14.6% | +53.5% | −13.4% | −58.4% | +85.7% | +95.7% | +17.5% | +51.1% |
| Nuclear Renaissance Basket | +73.5% | −2.3% | −38.5% | +58.2% | +35.2% | +131.2% | +40.3% | +46.0% |
| Optical Interconnect Basket | −23.2% | −35.4% | −57.0% | +32.8% | +56.5% | +64.1% | +27.9% | +96.7% |
| Payments & Fintech Basket | −49.9% | +1.2% | −19.5% | −46.8% | +1.2% | +24.0% | +20.2% | −9.0% |
| Power & Grid Buildout Basket | −13.4% | +6.3% | −1.0% | +16.9% | +32.2% | −10.4% | +4.2% | +36.7% |
| Regional Banks Basket | +27.8% | +19.7% | −4.8% | −86.3% | +6.4% | +53.2% | +0.1% | −18.4% |
| Reshoring & Industrial Capex Basket | +4.4% | +8.6% | +13.9% | −14.5% | +8.0% | +14.6% | +23.5% | +14.4% |
| Retail Basket | +10.0% | −11.4% | +13.7% | +13.0% | −0.9% | −7.3% | +33.5% | +4.2% |
| 60/40 SMH/XLE Basket | +33.4% | +26.3% | −12.7% | −39.8% | +18.9% | +58.8% | +27.1% | +17.7% |
| Space Economy Basket | −30.1% | +1.4% | −27.4% | −28.9% | +46.3% | +79.0% | −4.0% | +7.6% |
| Travel & Experiences Basket | −17.7% | +10.7% | −6.9% | −144.2% | −4.4% | +49.7% | +36.1% | +2.8% |
Per year relative to the benchmark (spreads as published); months per cell under each heading. Fewer than three months is blank, fewer than six is dimmed.
InputsOil, the tape and the nowcast inputs through 2026-11-12
Oil shock, daily
21-session change in front-month WTI (line) and its distance from the one-year mean (shaded), last two years.
The oil chart draws with JavaScript.
Tape through 2026-11-11
| Asset | Last | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | vs SPY, 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | 63.37 | −0.2% | −5.7% | +3.8% | +6.1% |
| Utilities | 43.82 | +0.5% | +4.7% | −0.5% | +1.8% |
| Technology | 174.36 | −1.2% | −11.2% | −8.6% | −6.3% |
| Consumer discretionary | 120.99 | −1.1% | +7.7% | +2.1% | +4.5% |
| Consumer staples | 91.45 | −0.5% | +8.6% | +6.3% | +8.7% |
| Health care | 188.95 | −0.4% | +11.4% | +12.2% | +14.5% |
| Financials | 58.63 | −1.0% | +7.0% | +0.6% | +3.0% |
| Industrials | 170.97 | +0.9% | +1.4% | −8.0% | −5.7% |
| Materials | 53.02 | −1.6% | +6.6% | +1.4% | +3.7% |
| Real estate | 44.59 | −1.2% | +6.6% | −1.2% | +1.1% |
| Communication services | 108.60 | +3.5% | −3.3% | −3.5% | −1.2% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | 759.81 | −0.9% | −2.3% | −2.3% | — |
| 7-10y Treasuries (IEF) | 90.94 | −0.8% | +1.6% | −2.5% | −0.2% |
| 20y+ Treasuries (TLT) | 80.92 | −1.0% | +3.3% | −2.0% | +0.3% |
| Gold futures | 4,000.50 | −1.8% | −4.2% | −9.5% | −7.2% |
| WTI front-month | 86.53 | −1.8% | −8.1% | +6.5% | +8.8% |
| Brent front-month | 92.76 | −2.0% | −12.2% | +6.5% | +8.8% |
Nowcast inputs
| Input | Axis | Latest | Percentile | Data through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm payrolls, y/y %, 3-month change | Growth | +0.20 | 68 | 2026-10 |
| Industrial production, y/y %, 3-month change | Growth | +0.17 | 56 | 2026-09 |
| CFNAI, 3-month average, 3-month change | Growth | +0.00 | 53 | 2026-09 |
| Unemployment rate, 12m change (inverted, pp), 3-month change | Growth | +0.22 | 76 | 2026-10 |
| CPI, y/y %, 3-month change | Inflation | +0.03 | 52 | 2026-10 |
| Core CPI, y/y %, 3-month change | Inflation | −0.02 | 47 | 2026-10 |
| Producer prices (all commodities), y/y %, 3-month change | Inflation | −0.07 | 46 | 2026-09 |
| Michigan 1-year inflation expectations, %, 3-month change | Inflation | −0.43 | 13 | 2026-09 |
| Initial claims (inverted), 13-week change | Growth | +4.07 | 69 | 2026-11-07 |
| Headline CPI nowcast, 3-month change (vs smoothed CPI y/y) | Inflation | +0.32 | 72 | 2026-11-09 |
| 10-year breakeven, 63-session change (pp) | Inflation | −0.07 | 35 | 2026-11-10 |
NotesAxes, nowcast timing, backdrop filters and odds
How the clock is built. Full specification: methodology §19.
- Axes
- Rate of change: each input's three-month change, percentile-ranked against all historical three-month changes and averaged across inputs. Level: year-over-year rates ranked against their own history. Growth inputs: industrial production, payrolls, CFNAI and the unemployment rate (inverted), plus initial claims in the nowcast. Inflation inputs: CPI, core CPI, producer prices and Michigan expectations, plus the ten-year breakeven and a gasoline-adjusted CPI nowcast.
- Why rate of change leads
- On 1958–2026 data only the rate-of-change clock's cell means beat the long-run average out of sample, and its cells are more stable in real time: 81% of months keep their cell as later data arrive, against 64% for levels.
- Nowcast
- Recomputed each weekday. The latest reading uses every release published by that day; the weekly path keeps the Friday readings and dates monthly inputs by their usual lags (payrolls 7 days after month end, CPI 13, PPI 14, industrial production 16, CFNAI 24). Weekly claims and the daily breakeven fill the gap. It is unsmoothed, so noisier than the monthly path.
- Backdrop
- Fed from the six-month change in the funds rate; credit from the three-month change in the high-yield spread; oil from front-month WTI; market state from the trailing twelve-month return; stock-bond correlation over 126 sessions. Filtering restricts the clock colours, the cell tiles and the comparison table to months in that state; cells with fewer than twelve such months are dropped.
- Odds
- Three months ahead: the share of historical three-month moves in the coordinates that would land the current reading in each cell. Twelve months after: historical transition frequencies. Neither is a forecast.
- Factor Watch rows
- Published factor books and baskets, monthly from daily returns since 2020; long books and baskets minus the benchmark, spreads as published. Full specification: methodology §19.