Housing Chain
The mortgage-rate trade expressed through equities: builders, building products, HVAC, tools, and home-improvement retail. The most rate-sensitive real-economy chain in the index.
Performance
Follow the theme against the wider market.
Series before each basket's creation date are a backtest of the membership as of creation; live tracking starts at creation.
| Return | 1 day | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days | MTD | YTD | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basket | +0.8% | -1.8% | -7.8% | +3.2% | -0.1% | +1.3% | -14.0% |
| vs FW 3000 | +1.1% | -2.1% | -7.4% | -2.9% | -0.7% | -10.6% | -27.8% |
Inside the basket · 26 stocks
Current members and the reasoning behind each inclusion. Returns are for individual stocks.
| Why it’s included | Added | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMHC | Builder (Taylor Morrison) | -0.0% | +0.4% | +0.7% | +23.1% | 2026-06-11 |
| NVR | Land-light builder model | -1.2% | -1.5% | -1.4% | -13.6% | 2026-06-11 |
| MHK | Mohawk — re-enters here; left the S&P 500, still a top-3000 flooring maker | +1.5% | +2.9% | -1.8% | +22.3% | 2026-06-11 |
| IBP | Insulation installation | +0.4% | -2.9% | -2.2% | -7.1% | 2026-06-11 |
| LEN | Scale builder #2 | -1.0% | -3.2% | -5.2% | -17.4% | 2026-06-11 |
| AOS | Water heaters — repair/replace plus new build | -0.1% | +0.2% | -5.5% | -8.0% | 2026-06-11 |
| DHI | Largest builder, entry-level skew | -1.1% | -3.2% | -5.5% | +0.0% | 2026-06-11 |
| WMS | Stormwater and drainage (Advanced Drainage) | +0.7% | -0.7% | -5.5% | -5.9% | 2026-06-11 |
| MAS | Repair & remodel products | +1.8% | -0.7% | -5.8% | +16.1% | 2026-06-11 |
| SWK | Tools — DIY and pro housing demand | +0.9% | -0.5% | -6.3% | +33.9% | 2026-06-11 |
| PHM | Move-up segment exposure | +0.1% | -3.2% | -6.4% | +6.6% | 2026-06-11 |
| CARR | Residential HVAC and heat pumps | +1.1% | +1.6% | -6.7% | +14.3% | 2026-06-11 |
| ALLE | Locks and access hardware | +1.0% | -0.2% | -7.0% | -0.5% | 2026-06-11 |
| TREX | Composite decking | +4.4% | -0.3% | -7.2% | +30.1% | 2026-06-11 |
| LOW | Same chain, DIY skew | +1.3% | -1.7% | -8.5% | -13.9% | 2026-06-11 |
| TOL | Luxury homebuilder (Toll Brothers) | -0.0% | -3.1% | -8.6% | +5.4% | 2026-06-11 |
| SSD | Structural connectors (Simpson) | +1.6% | -0.6% | -8.7% | +12.6% | 2026-06-11 |
| HD | Home improvement demand barometer | +0.9% | -2.1% | -9.1% | -4.7% | 2026-06-11 |
| SHW | Paint: R&R + new build | +0.4% | -3.2% | -9.5% | +3.7% | 2026-06-11 |
| POOL | Big-ticket backyard discretionary — re-enters as a broad member after leaving the S&P 500 | +0.6% | -1.5% | -9.6% | -17.4% | 2026-07-21 |
| WSM | Home furnishings retail — move/remodel spend | +2.1% | -3.3% | -9.7% | +28.7% | 2026-06-11 |
| MTH | Entry-level builder (Meritage) | -0.2% | -5.2% | -9.7% | +3.8% | 2026-06-11 |
| KBH | Entry-level homebuilder | -0.1% | -4.8% | -10.8% | -6.1% | 2026-06-11 |
| LII | Residential HVAC replacement cycle | +1.2% | -0.7% | -11.2% | -19.1% | 2026-06-11 |
| BLDR | Builder supply chain | +2.5% | -2.9% | -11.9% | -36.1% | 2026-06-11 |
| FND | Hard-surface flooring retail (Floor & Decor) | +1.7% | -5.2% | -19.9% | -17.5% | 2026-06-11 |
No longer in the selected universe; awaiting membership review: TMHC.
Partial price histories: CARR from 2020-03-19, TMHC from 2018-12-03.
How this basket is built
Equal-weighted, monthly-rebalanced, buy-and-hold between rebalances; dated membership changes take effect same-day.
Tracked since 2026-06-11. Membership decisions are documented below.
Read the methodology →Reading the returns
Basket returns include dividends. “vs FW 3000” compares the basket’s compounded growth with the benchmark’s. Green means positive; red means negative.
Cross-checked against XHB. Daily return correlation: 0.99 across 1678 sessions. the same builder/products/retail mix, modified equal weight, mid-cap inclusive
Membership history & changes
- drop
POOL left the S&P 500 (caught by the pipeline's constituent check); it remains an FW 3000 constituent and moves to a broad entry, per the ZION/MOH/MHK pattern. The FW 3000 version is unchanged.
- expand
FW 3000 pass: added TOL, KBH, MTH, TMHC, IBP, TREX, SSD, WMS, FND, MHK — names outside the S&P 500 but inside our broad universe; they count only in the FW 3000 version of this basket. Effective-dated to creation so the broad backtest covers the full set. The S&P 500 basket is unchanged.
- expand
Widening pass: added the HVAC leg (LII, CARR), water heaters (AOS), hardware (ALLE), tools (SWK), and furnishings retail (WSM). Reference pinned to XHB. New members are effective-dated to basket creation so the backtest and the reference correlation cover the widened set (the basket was one day old, with no meaningful live history to restate).
- drop
MHK removed — no longer in the S&P 500 universe (flagged by the widening pass’s constituent check).
- create
Initial composition: builders, products, retail.