Realized volatility

as of 2026-09-11

FW 3000 (computed) 20d realized vol 9.8% (20th %ile of the past year, 13th since 2020) · hottest tape: Retail 21.3% (96th %ile) · biggest expansion: Cybersecurity +15.0 pts in 20 sessions · 10 of 54 series with an inverted vol curve.

How to read this page
How to read this page

Volatility cells show annualized realized vol, colored by their percentile within that series' own trailing year: red is high for that series, green is compressed, so a 40-vol basket can be calm while a 12-vol index is stressed. 1d return shows the signed daily return; its color and sort order rank the move’s absolute magnitude, and the tooltip expresses that magnitude in annualized vol units; Δ20d is the change in 20-day vol over 20 sessions; 5−60 is short minus long vol, positive when the curve is inverted. Definitions: methodology §15.

Vol monitor

Annualized realized vol by window, colored by percentile vs the series' own trailing year. Click a column to sort.

Scope
Series1d return5d10d20d60d120d1y20d %ile (1y)Δ 20d
Index
FW 3000 (computed)+0.9%10.0%11.1%9.8%11.6%13.8%13.1%20-4.0
Factor portfolios (long)
Dividend yield+0.5%9.5%7.6%8.7%11.2%10.2%9.9%25-0.5
High beta+1.6%28.3%29.3%29.6%44.2%43.4%36.7%35-18.2
Low volatility+0.5%8.7%7.5%9.3%10.8%9.7%8.9%75+0.6
Momentum+1.3%23.1%23.0%25.7%41.9%41.2%32.9%40-17.9
Quality+1.1%10.1%10.7%9.5%13.2%15.3%14.0%11-5.6
Size+0.5%16.4%16.3%15.1%15.7%17.7%19.3%16-2.7
Value+0.6%12.3%12.1%11.0%10.9%11.7%12.8%26-0.1
Factor spreads (Q5−Q1)
Dividend yield spread-0.6%12.1%14.0%13.9%16.4%17.2%16.8%24-2.9
High beta spread+1.2%25.4%30.5%31.4%39.7%38.6%33.1%58-11.8
Low volatility spread-0.6%21.7%24.2%26.9%32.1%32.7%31.6%27-10.2
Momentum spread+0.0%18.8%19.8%23.6%34.2%30.8%25.2%52-13.9
Quality spread+0.3%9.3%9.2%9.5%10.5%11.1%11.1%28-2.1
Size spread-0.5%9.2%9.8%9.7%11.7%11.8%12.2%12-1.2
Value spread+0.2%17.6%20.5%19.1%26.9%26.2%24.8%15-10.4
Sectors
Basic Materials+0.4%18.2%18.6%18.8%19.8%22.6%21.6%30-3.1
Communication Services+1.4%12.5%17.2%15.2%27.3%25.8%21.6%17-19.5
Consumer Cyclical+1.1%16.2%18.7%18.0%23.4%22.7%21.0%36-11.4
Consumer Defensive+0.6%10.7%8.2%15.7%17.2%16.2%14.8%58+0.6
Energy+0.2%10.7%14.2%14.1%19.2%21.9%20.1%3-8.6
Financial Services+0.6%12.5%14.4%12.8%12.5%13.7%14.7%32+1.5
Healthcare-0.1%18.4%14.5%19.2%18.5%17.4%15.9%91+4.7
Industrials+1.5%21.2%22.8%19.8%19.5%21.9%19.6%67+0.1
Real Estate+0.7%11.8%11.0%10.3%14.0%14.2%13.5%14-2.6
Technology+1.2%11.2%14.3%18.7%24.7%26.9%23.9%20-9.7
Utilities-0.2%11.7%11.7%12.1%12.1%13.0%12.9%42+0.4
Thematic baskets
AI Displacement Risk+2.4%46.1%35.6%32.9%43.0%40.7%35.7%50-8.3
AI Infrastructure Leaders+2.5%47.1%41.5%43.9%61.7%58.8%50.1%47-23.1
AI Software & Platforms+0.9%27.0%28.1%32.2%35.6%39.0%33.2%50-9.9
Capital Markets Cycle+0.0%16.1%20.0%17.2%19.6%19.0%19.8%35+0.4
Commodity Producers-0.7%15.3%15.7%18.6%19.0%20.2%22.1%31-3.3
Crypto Financialization+3.0%38.5%77.4%68.5%59.0%58.6%62.9%83+8.0
Cybersecurity-1.4%17.9%36.6%49.1%42.0%44.6%37.4%83+15.0
Defense & Aerospace+0.3%15.3%18.0%21.5%24.7%24.8%24.3%32-6.4
Defensives+0.1%10.8%9.5%11.7%16.0%14.6%13.0%47-1.4
US Energy Complex+0.0%11.0%13.3%14.8%21.6%24.0%22.7%0-12.6
Fortress Balance Sheets+0.5%17.5%15.7%13.6%16.3%16.3%15.2%38-4.9
GLP-1 Pressure-0.0%14.1%13.0%17.1%21.7%18.8%17.2%58-2.5
Homebuilders+1.7%36.4%30.5%29.4%34.1%34.6%32.5%27-4.5
Hospitals & Providers+0.6%15.6%14.1%13.3%21.8%19.8%20.3%3-7.9
Housing Chain+1.3%28.9%26.6%24.9%30.8%30.9%27.9%27-7.0
Magnificent Seven+1.0%12.6%16.1%15.7%24.0%24.1%21.8%14-12.2
Managed Care & Health Insurers+0.3%16.0%17.6%20.5%26.7%30.2%31.2%8-9.5
Memory & Storage-1.8%54.4%41.5%54.9%84.1%80.0%74.5%8-33.9
Nuclear Renaissance-3.4%50.8%44.8%44.3%44.3%50.1%51.2%22-3.3
Optical Interconnect+2.3%66.6%58.2%71.4%83.9%81.7%72.2%55-24.7
Payments & Fintech+1.4%27.7%28.0%23.8%26.6%26.7%26.4%37-2.6
Power & Grid Buildout+0.3%30.8%29.1%29.1%33.8%35.9%34.3%20-6.5
Regional Banks+0.3%9.8%17.0%16.8%16.9%19.2%21.9%19+3.2
Reshoring & Industrial Capex+1.5%18.6%19.5%19.9%22.1%25.0%22.6%34-1.0
Retail+1.0%21.7%16.1%21.3%20.1%19.2%17.5%96+3.3
60/40 SMH/XLE+1.0%18.6%18.0%17.8%26.1%26.9%24.0%14-8.8
Space Economy+0.2%28.4%27.8%30.3%39.7%51.9%49.9%3-14.1
Travel & Experiences+0.9%19.9%24.1%21.5%21.3%25.4%24.9%35+0.1

Rolling realized vol

Rolling realized vol, annualized. Pick a vol window and a period; click a legend entry to toggle it.

Window
Period

Vol cone & term structure

Today's vol by window against its full history: bands are the 5–95th and 25–75th percentiles, the dashed line the median, the solid line today.

Series

Reading this page

Realized vol (5d … 1y)
Zero-mean vol of daily log returns over the window, annualized: RV = √(252 · mean(r²)). Close-to-close only.
1d return
The signed daily simple return. Color and sorting rank its absolute magnitude against the past year. The tooltip gives the magnitude in annualized units, |log(1 + return)| · √252.
Percentiles & σ
Each reading vs the trailing 252 readings of the same window. With three or more years of history, %ile (full) adds the full-history rank. Windows overlap, so read percentiles as "how unusual", not as significance.
EWMA
Exponentially weighted vol (λ = 0.94), annualized; the fast reading in tooltips.
Δ20d and the 5−60 curve
Δ20d: 20-day vol now minus 20 sessions ago, in vol points. 5−60: 5-day minus 60-day vol; positive means an inverted, stressed curve.
Sources
The same daily return series as the rest of the site. Spread vol is a signal about the factor, not a tradable strategy. Full spec: methodology §15.