Housing Chain
The mortgage-rate trade expressed through equities: builders, building products, HVAC, tools, and home-improvement retail. The most rate-sensitive real-economy chain in the index.
+1.2% 20d vs FW 3000
Macro & Rates Thematic basket
Homebuilders
The pure-play mortgage-rate beta: production builders buying down rates to clear inventory, move-up and luxury mix, the entry-level spec machines, manufactured housing at the affordability floor, and the spun-out land bank that finances the land-light model. Housing-chain tracks the whole ecosystem; this basket isolates the builders themselves, where the margin cycle and the rate trade express first and hardest.
1 day-0.7%basket return
20 days-7.3%basket return
20 days vs FW 3000-6.9%relative return
Year to date-10.0%basket return
Performance
Follow the theme against the wider market.
HomebuildersFW 3000
Series before each basket's creation date are a backtest of the membership as of creation; live tracking starts at creation.
| Return | 1 day | 5 days | 20 days | 60 days | MTD | YTD | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basket | -0.7% | -0.8% | -7.3% | -14.1% | -6.6% | -10.0% | -14.3% |
| vs FW 3000 | +0.5% | +1.5% | -6.9% | -16.4% | -6.5% | -19.4% | -24.7% |
Risk statistics
Period
1y · 2025-10-16 – 2026-10-16 · 252 / 252 sessions
Sharpe ratio-0.31Annualized · 0% risk-free rate
Sortino ratio-0.47Annualized · 0% downside target
Historical volatility32.6%Annualized · daily log returns
Basket total returns · Annualized using 252 trading sessions · 0% risk-free rate and downside target. As of 2026-10-16 · close.
How these statistics are calculated
Risk methodology
Sharpe: average daily simple return divided by its sample standard deviation, multiplied by √252. The risk-free rate is assumed to be 0%; this is not a cash-adjusted ratio.
Sortino: average daily simple return divided by downside deviation, multiplied by √252. Downside deviation is the square root of the average squared shortfall below 0%, counting all sessions, including zeros for gains.
Historical volatility: √(252 × average squared daily log return), matching the Vol page’s realized-volatility convention. This differs from the sample standard deviation used in Sharpe.
Each period requires complete history and at least 5 sessions. MTD and YTD follow the calendar; 1y is 252 sessions. Missing data or an undefined ratio displays — with a reason. Short periods can produce unstable ratios; intraday snapshots include a partial session. History before this basket’s creation is backtested. If a new basket has no stored daily return series yet, estimates from its rounded published chart levels are marked ≈.
Inside the basket · 16 stocks
Current members and the reasoning behind each inclusion. Returns are for individual holdings.
| Why it’s included | Added | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LENLennar Corporation | Asset-light pivot post-Millrose spin | -0.8% | +0.5% | +1.5% | -23.3% | 2026-07-21 |
| DHID.R. Horton, Inc. | Volume leader — the rate-buydown machine | -0.1% | +3.3% | +1.0% | -2.4% | 2026-07-21 |
| TMHC | Move-up scale outside the index (Taylor Morrison) | -0.0% | +0.4% | +0.7% | +23.1% | 2026-07-21 |
| TOLToll Brothers, Inc. | Luxury leg — the least rate-sensitive buyer | -0.2% | +0.4% | +0.7% | -0.4% | 2026-07-21 |
| CVCOCavco Industries, Inc. | The other manufactured-housing half (Cavco) | -2.5% | -2.0% | -1.7% | -11.6% | 2026-07-21 |
| PHMPulteGroup, Inc. | Move-up and active-adult mix with the group's best margins | +0.5% | +1.3% | -3.2% | -2.5% | 2026-07-21 |
| NVRNVR, Inc. | The land-light archetype: options, not ownership | -0.4% | +0.3% | -3.8% | -18.8% | 2026-07-21 |
| MTHMeritage Homes Corporation | Entry-level spec with quick-turn inventory (Meritage) | -1.8% | +0.6% | -6.4% | -8.1% | 2026-07-21 |
| GRBKGreen Brick Partners, Inc. | Owned-land Texas/Atlanta infill — the anti-NVR model (Green Brick) | -1.3% | -2.7% | -7.6% | -2.4% | 2026-07-21 |
| SKY | Manufactured housing at the affordability floor (Champion) | -2.8% | -2.4% | -8.1% | -8.0% | 2026-07-21 |
| KBHKB Home | Built-to-order entry-level | -0.8% | +0.4% | -8.1% | -22.2% | 2026-07-21 |
| CCSCentury Communities, Inc. | Entry-level spec across the Mountain West (Century) | -1.7% | -1.9% | -9.8% | -6.6% | 2026-07-21 |
| MHOM/I Homes, Inc. | Midwest and Southeast value (M/I Homes) | -1.2% | -2.6% | -10.3% | -2.7% | 2026-07-21 |
| LGIHLGI Homes, Inc. | Pure entry-level conversion machine (LGI) | -2.4% | -1.8% | -11.5% | +0.1% | 2026-07-21 |
| MRPMillrose Properties, Inc. | The land bank itself: Lennar's spun-out option book (Millrose) | +1.3% | +0.6% | -19.5% | -15.8% | 2026-07-21 |
| DFHDream Finders Homes, Inc. | Asset-light Southeast grower (Dream Finders) | +4.1% | -6.3% | -22.6% | -48.6% | 2026-07-21 |
No longer in the selected universe; awaiting membership review: TMHC.
Partial price histories: DFH from 2021-01-21, MRP from 2025-02-05, TMHC from 2018-12-03.
How this basket is built
Equal-weighted; monthly rebalance, buy-and-hold between rebalances; dated membership changes reset the target weights.
Tracked since 2026-07-21. Membership decisions are documented below.
Read the methodology →Reading the returns
Basket returns include dividends. “vs FW 3000” compares the basket’s compounded growth with the benchmark’s. Green means positive; red means negative.
Cross-checked against ITB. Daily return correlation: 0.98 across 1707 sessions. the builder-heaviest listed proxy (~half pure builders, plus products and retail); XHB is pinned to housing-chain
Membership history & changes
Membership history
- create
Initial composition: 16 names — S&P 500 production builders (DHI, LEN, PHM, NVR), the off-index builder cross-section (TOL, TMHC, KBH, MTH, GRBK, CCS, LGIH, MHO, DFH), manufactured housing (SKY, CVCO) and the Millrose land bank (MRP). TOL is tagged broad, consistent with its tagging in housing-chain. Reference pinned to ITB. Considered and excluded: TPH (absent from the current FW 3000 data — revisit at the next reconstitution), BZH and HOV (smallest, most levered builders — this basket reads the rate cycle, not the credit tail), LSEA (acquired), and the products/installer chain (IBP, BLD), which stays in housing-chain.