Market snapshot
In brief
The story
The move. Momentum's long-short spread gained 14.7% against the S&P over 20 sessions, a 2.4σ move and the best 20-session run in a year. Technology supplied 7.7pp of it. The five largest contributors account for a tenth of the move: AMD +39%, Teradyne +33%, Marvell +30% and Intel +30% in the long leg, and Fair Isaac, down 41% in the short leg, each worth 0.3 to 0.4pp.
The mirror. Value's spread lost 8.7% over the same window, -2.1σ and its worst run in a year. The same four chip names sit in value's short leg; with Everpure, up 43% there, the five explain 11% of the drop, and technology cost the spread 5.9pp. Capital Markets Cycle fell 9.9% against the S&P over 20 sessions, -2.5σ and the second-worst 20-session run since the series began, now in session 10. Blackstone -19%, KKR -18% and Ares -16% are 21% of that move.
The market. The S&P closed at 7,723, up 0.74% on the day and down 0.4% on the week, after September payrolls printed 29K against 90K expected and unemployment rose to 4.2%. Reuters reported the Nasdaq climbed to a record after the softer jobs data cooled rate-hike expectations. The VIX fell 6.6% to 15.31 and the 10-year yield rose 4bp to 5.28%. Breadth is 25% above the 50-day average, against 51% a month ago. Basic materials lost 5.0% to the S&P on the week, the ninth-worst five-session run in the series.
Who did it · 10% of the gain in these names
| Name | Leg | 20d | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|
| FICO Fair Isaac | short | -41% | +0.41pp |
| AMD Advanced Micro Devices | long | +39% | +0.39pp |
| TER Teradyne | long | +33% | +0.33pp |
| MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. | long | +30% | +0.30pp |
| INTC Intel | long | +30% | +0.30pp |
By sector: Technology added 7.7pp; Consumer Cyclical added 1.7pp; Industrials added 1.5pp.
The board · factors vs S&P 500, relative return with z vs the trailing year, sorted by the week
| Factor | 1D | 5D | 20D | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (computed) absolute | +0.8% +0.9σ | -0.4% -0.4σ | -0.5% -0.6σ | +13.1% |
| Momentum | +0.1% +0.0σ | +1.3% +0.5σ | +6.9% +1.5σ | +21.4% |
| High beta | +0.6% +0.4σ | +1.4% +0.4σ | +7.5% +1.3σ | +21.4% |
| Quality | -0.4% -1.2σ | +0.1% -0.0σ | +2.3% +1.3σ | +5.8% |
| Size | -0.8% -0.9σ | -0.7% -0.3σ | -6.1% -1.7σ | -4.1% |
| Low volatility | -0.5% -0.5σ | -1.0% -0.3σ | -5.0% -1.0σ | -9.9% |
| Dividend yield | -0.9% -0.9σ | -0.9% -0.4σ | -6.8% -1.8σ | -1.3% |
| Value | -0.6% -0.7σ | -1.2% -0.7σ | -6.2% -2.0σ | -0.2% |
Also
- U-6 Unemployment Rate 7.6% (7.7% expected)
- Non Farm Payrolls 29K (90K expected)
- Optical Interconnect basket +23.2% vs S&P over 20 sessions
- AI Infrastructure Leaders basket +13.5% vs S&P over 20 sessions
- Capital Markets Cycle × Housing Chain: 60-session correlation of daily returns minus the S&P 500 is r=+0.22 (60 paired sessions), versus r=-0.08 (60 paired sessions) for the 60-session period ending 2026-09-03, 20 sessions earlier. Factors use long portfolios.
- The Underwhelming Jobs Data That Sparked a Stock Rally — WSJ
- Nasdaq climbs to record after softer jobs data cools rate-hike expectations — Reuters
Breadth, leadership, revisions, realized vol and the baskets, every day: the dashboard. Explore correlations →. Headlines are quoted from their publishers for context.
Next session · Oct 5
- Monday: ISM Services PMI (Sep), consensus 55.7.
- October in the 30-year record: S&P +1.6% mean, positive 63% of the time; Quality averaged +0.4%.
The narrative in this brief is drafted by an AI model from Factor Watch's computed data and checked against it, but it can still be wrong — verify anything before you act on it.