Market snapshot
In brief
The story
The move. The Housing Chain basket of 15 names trailed the S&P by 9.4% over 20 sessions, a z of -1.0 and the 14th percentile of the trailing year. Builders FirstSource fell 20% for -1.32pp, Lennox 14% for -0.91pp and Lowe's 12% for -0.73pp, about a third of the move; Industrials cost 4.36pp and Consumer Cyclical 3.71pp. The narrower Homebuilders basket was 6.3% behind, with PulteGroup and Lennar each down 9% and D. R. Horton 8%. Today's prints: housing starts 1.275M against 1.31M expected, permits 1.394M against 1.41M.
The market. The S&P closed at 7,637.05, up 1.13%, a z of +1.3, on a session the WSJ headlined as stocks rallying and shaking off the Fed's rate hike. The VIX fell 12.8% to 15.44 and the 10-year yield dropped 7bp to 4.94%. Continuing claims printed 1730K against 1780K expected and initial claims 196K against 208K. Breadth is thin: 31% of the index sits above its 50-day average, down from 62% a month ago, a 20-session change at the 10th percentile since 2020.
The books. Momentum's long-short spread is 13.8% behind the S&P over 60 sessions, z -2.0 and the 3rd percentile of the trailing year, in its fourth session. The damage is in the short leg: Workday +73%, Veeva +65%, Salesforce +59%, Cognizant and Accenture +52%, with Technology costing 7.71pp. Regional Banks lagged 4.5% on the week, z -1.5, as M&T, Regions and PNC each fell 5%.
Who did it · 32% of the move in these names
| Name | Weight | 20d | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|
| BLDR Builders FirstSource | 6.7% | -20% | -1.32pp |
| LII Lennox International | 6.7% | -14% | -0.91pp |
| LOW Lowe's | 6.7% | -12% | -0.73pp |
By sector: Industrials cost 4.4pp; Consumer Cyclical cost 3.7pp.
The board · factors vs S&P 500, relative return with z vs the trailing year, sorted by the week
| Factor | 1D | 5D | 20D | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (computed) absolute | +1.1% +1.3σ | +0.7% +0.2σ | -0.7% -0.7σ | +12.1% |
| Quality | -0.2% -0.5σ | +0.5% +0.6σ | +0.3% +0.1σ | +4.0% |
| Momentum | +0.8% +0.8σ | +0.4% +0.1σ | +0.9% -0.1σ | +16.7% |
| Size | -0.9% -1.0σ | -0.1% -0.0σ | -3.5% -1.0σ | -0.0% |
| High beta | +1.2% +0.9σ | +0.2% -0.1σ | +2.1% +0.1σ | +15.5% |
| Low volatility | -1.0% -1.0σ | -1.3% -0.5σ | -2.1% -0.3σ | -6.6% |
| Dividend yield | -0.9% -1.0σ | -1.4% -0.7σ | -3.0% -0.8σ | +3.8% |
| Value | -1.1% -1.4σ | -1.7% -1.0σ | -0.7% -0.4σ | +4.7% |
Also
- Continuing Jobless Claims 1730K (1780K expected)
- Initial Jobless Claims 196K (208K expected)
- Defense & Aerospace basket -10.6% vs S&P over 20 sessions
- Travel & Experiences basket -10.5% vs S&P over 20 sessions
- High beta takes the 20-day lead from Quality
- Stocks Rally, Shaking Off Fed's Rate Hike — WSJ
- Stocks Climb as Markets Retrace Post-Fed Moves — WSJ
Breadth, leadership, revisions, realized vol and the baskets, every day: the dashboard. Explore correlations →. Headlines are quoted from their publishers for context.
The narrative in this brief is drafted by an AI model from Factor Watch's computed data and checked against it, but it can still be wrong — verify anything before you act on it.