The story
The move. The AI Software & Platforms basket closed the week 5.2% behind the S&P, a z of -1.2 and the 10th percentile of the trailing year. Three design-software names did about half the damage: Autodesk -16%, Cadence Design Systems -14% and Synopsys -11%, together 48% of the move. All of the drag sat in Technology, -5.54pp.
The market. The S&P fell 0.39% to 7,717.81, leaving it +0.1% on the week. August payrolls came in at 162K against 56K expected, private payrolls 127K against 45K, and unemployment held at 4.1% as expected. The 2-year finished at 4.37%; CNBC reported it rose to its highest since January 2025 after the jobs report lifted expectations that the Fed could raise rates, and the WSJ put the equity dip down to the same print. The 10-year added 1bp to 4.78%. Breadth crossed below half: 48% of the index is above its 50-day average, from 67% a month ago, a 20-session change at the 20th percentile since 2020. VIX 14.53.
The books. Quality's long-short spread is -3.5% against the S&P over 20 sessions, z -2.3 and the 2nd percentile of the trailing year, in its fourth session. The short leg did it: Moderna +146%, Sandisk +44%, Robinhood +31% and Phillips 66 +26%, while Lululemon, -22%, cost the long leg. Lululemon dropped 17.4% today after reporting EPS of 2.92 against 1.79 expected; it sits in the Value, Quality and Size books. Elsewhere Memory & Storage gained 7.7% on the week on Sandisk +17% and Micron +9%, and Nuclear Renaissance 5.1% on Vistra +9% and Constellation +8%.
Who did it · 48% of the move in these names
| Name | Weight | 5d | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADSK Autodesk | 6.7% | -16% | -1.10pp |
| CDNS Cadence Design Systems | 6.7% | -14% | -0.94pp |
| SNPS Synopsys | 6.7% | -11% | -0.74pp |
By sector: Technology cost 5.5pp.
The board · factors vs S&P 500, relative return with z vs the trailing year, sorted by the week
| Factor | 1D | 5D | 20D | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (computed) absolute | -0.4% -0.6σ | +0.1% -0.1σ | -0.3% -0.6σ | +13.2% |
| Momentum | +1.8% +1.6σ | +1.3% +0.6σ | +0.7% -0.1σ | +15.5% |
| High beta | +1.7% +1.3σ | +1.6% +0.5σ | -0.1% -0.3σ | +14.8% |
| Value | -0.1% -0.1σ | +0.7% +0.3σ | +1.5% +0.3σ | +6.4% |
| Quality | +0.4% +1.0σ | +0.0% -0.0σ | +0.1% -0.1σ | +3.9% |
| Low volatility | -0.3% -0.3σ | -0.6% -0.1σ | -0.0% +0.2σ | -5.5% |
| Dividend yield | -0.4% -0.4σ | -0.9% -0.4σ | +0.7% +0.1σ | +5.1% |
| Size | -0.2% -0.3σ | -1.4% -0.7σ | -0.4% -0.1σ | +1.9% |
Also
- Unemployment Rate 4.1% (4.1% expected)
- U-6 Unemployment Rate 7.7% (8% expected)
- Memory & Storage basket +18.4% vs S&P over 20 sessions
- Optical Interconnect basket -14.0% vs S&P over 20 sessions
- Stocks Fall After Hot Jobs Report — WSJ
- Rates Climb, Stocks Dip After Strong U.S. — WSJ
Breadth, leadership, revisions, realized vol and the baskets, every day: the dashboard. Headlines are quoted from their publishers for context.
Next session · Sep 7
- September in the 30-year record: S&P -0.5% mean, positive 57% of the time; Momentum averaged +1.7%.
The narrative in this brief is drafted by an AI model from Factor Watch's computed data and checked against it, but it can still be wrong — verify anything before you act on it.