Market snapshot
In brief
The story
The move. The S&P 500 closed at 7,556.16, up 2.43%, a +2.7σ session, and the VIX fell 22.3% to 19.92. High beta beat the index by 3.0% (z +2.2), its best session in a year, after trailing by 10.7% over the prior 20 sessions. Momentum beat it by 2.4% (z +2.1), the fifth-best session since January 2020, after a 9.9% shortfall. The same chips did the work in both books: AMD rose 13% and added 0.54pp to each, with AMAT up 11%, MU up 6% and AVGO up 9%. Technology alone contributed 2.49pp of momentum's day. Reuters reported Wall Street brokerages calling the AI selloff overdone, and Barron's ran a similar line.
The month. Size is 12.2% ahead of the S&P over 20 sessions (z +3.0, 99th percentile of the year), session seven of the run and its first day leading the 20-day tape. It is broad: SWK (+33%), GEN, HAS, ALLE and MAS together account for only 14% of the move, with Industrials adding 2.34pp and Consumer Cyclical 2.01pp. Breadth matches: 70% of the index is above its 50-day average against 37% a month ago. MarketWatch described the rally as spreading beyond Big Tech.
The books. The October 30 rebalance turned over seven books. Momentum churned 24%, dropping GOOGL, ABNB and VRT and adding CVX, EOG, OXY, DVN and OKE; those energy names met a day when WSJ reported oil sliding more than 3% as Trump played down new Iran strikes. SWK moved into momentum and out of value before its 33% run; HAS joined quality. Tuesday brings October CPI, consensus 0.3% month on month and 2.8% core.
Who did it · 38% of the gain in these names
| Name | Weight | 1d | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMD Advanced Micro Devices | 5.0% | +13% | +0.54pp |
| AVGO Broadcom | 5.0% | +9% | +0.32pp |
| MU Micron Technology | 5.0% | +6% | +0.19pp |
| AMAT Applied Materials | 1.9% | +11% | +0.17pp |
| TSLA Tesla, Inc. | 5.0% | +6% | +0.16pp |
By sector: Technology added 2.4pp; Industrials added 0.3pp; Consumer Cyclical added 0.2pp.
The board · factors vs S&P 500, relative return with z vs the trailing year, sorted by the week
| Factor | 1D | 5D | 20D | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (computed) absolute | +2.4% +2.7σ | +0.2% +0.0σ | -3.1% -1.3σ | +11.0% |
| Size | -0.5% -0.6σ | +1.1% +0.4σ | +12.2% +3.0σ | +7.3% |
| Low volatility | -1.1% -1.1σ | +0.5% +0.2σ | +10.5% +2.4σ | +1.6% |
| Value | -0.9% -1.0σ | -0.0% -0.1σ | +7.2% +1.8σ | +7.6% |
| High beta | +3.0% +2.2σ | -0.8% -0.3σ | -10.7% -2.1σ | +4.7% |
| Dividend yield | -1.3% -1.2σ | -0.5% -0.4σ | +10.9% +2.3σ | +10.5% |
| Quality | +0.6% +1.8σ | -0.1% -0.4σ | -1.4% -1.2σ | +4.1% |
| Momentum | +2.4% +2.1σ | -3.0% -1.3σ | -9.9% -2.5σ | +5.9% |
Rebalanced Oct 30: Momentum in CVX, MAR, JCI +21 · out GOOGL, IBKR, ABNB +21 (24% turnover); 6 other books turned over — every book.
Also
- Memory & Storage basket -28.9% vs S&P over 20 sessions
- Optical Interconnect basket -26.5% vs S&P over 20 sessions
- Size takes the 20-day lead from Dividend yield
- GLP-1 Pressure × Housing Chain: 60-session correlation of daily returns minus the S&P 500 is r=+0.76 (60 paired sessions), versus r=+0.31 (60 paired sessions) for the 60-session period ending 2026-10-12, 20 sessions earlier. Factors use long portfolios.
- High beta spread 20-day realized vol 58.5%, a high since 2020
- The stock-market rally keeps spreading beyond Big Tech. — MarketWatch
- Wall St brokerages say AI selloff overdone, downplay Democrat regulation risks — Reuters
Breadth, leadership, revisions, realized vol and the baskets, every day: the dashboard. Explore correlations →. Headlines are quoted from their publishers for context.
Tomorrow · Nov 10
- Tuesday: Inflation Rate MoM (Oct), consensus 0.3%.
- Tuesday: Inflation Rate (Oct), consensus 337.02.
- Tuesday: Core Inflation Rate YoY (Oct), consensus 2.8%.
The narrative in this brief is drafted by an AI model from Factor Watch's computed data and checked against it, but it can still be wrong — verify anything before you act on it.