Market snapshot
In brief
The story
The move. The AI Displacement Risk basket, six names of seat-based IT services and outsourcing, is up 8.2% against the S&P on the week, z +1.8 and the 97th percentile of the trailing year, the ninth-best five-session run since 2020 and only session two of the move. CDW +12%, Accenture +11% and Cognizant +7% account for 63% of it; technology contributed 6.2 points.
The other side. Optical Interconnect fell 12.1% against the index on the week, z -1.7 and the 6th percentile, with Coherent -14%, Lumentum -13% and Corning -12% making up 80% of the move. The WSJ reported Nasdaq futures falling as a global AI selloff intensified. Space Economy is down 8.8% over 20 sessions and Defense & Aerospace 6.7%, both led by Boeing -11% and Northrop -9%. US Energy Complex added 5.0% on the week, Marathon Petroleum +10%.
The books. Quality's long-short spread is up 3.1% against the S&P over 20 sessions, z +2.5, session ten of the run. PTC +46% and NetApp +26% lead the long leg; MGM, Mosaic and Charter are each down 24% to 25% on the short side, though the top five names explain only 18% of the move. On benchmark-relative daily returns, the quality long book's 60-session correlation with Crypto Financialization is r=+0.26, up 0.31 coefficient points from r=-0.05 twenty sessions earlier on overlapping windows; the one-year reading is r=-0.06.
The market. The S&P closed at 7,805.37, down 0.02%; the 10-year yield slipped 3bp to 5.21% and VIX sits at 15.27. Breadth improved to 40% of the index above its 50-day average from 35% a month ago. Reuters reported Fed's Collins seeing another hike on the table before year-end. Core CPI for September lands Wednesday, consensus 2.5% year on year.
Who did it · 63% of the move in these names
| Name | Weight | 5d | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|
| CDW CDW | 16.7% | +12% | +2.01pp |
| ACN Accenture | 16.7% | +11% | +1.90pp |
| CTSH Cognizant | 16.7% | +7% | +1.21pp |
By sector: Technology added 6.2pp; Financial Services added 1.2pp; Communication Services added 0.8pp.
The board · factors vs S&P 500, relative return with z vs the trailing year, sorted by the week
| Factor | 1D | 5D | 20D | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (computed) absolute | -0.0% -0.1σ | -0.1% -0.2σ | +2.8% +0.5σ | +14.5% |
| Low volatility | +0.0% +0.1σ | +2.4% +1.2σ | -2.9% -0.5σ | -8.0% |
| Dividend yield | +0.2% +0.2σ | +1.7% +0.8σ | -5.7% -1.4σ | -0.1% |
| Size | +0.5% +0.6σ | +1.1% +0.6σ | -4.5% -1.2σ | -3.2% |
| Value | +0.1% +0.1σ | +1.2% +0.6σ | -6.0% -1.8σ | +0.9% |
| Quality | -0.2% -0.6σ | -0.0% -0.2σ | +1.7% +0.8σ | +5.7% |
| High beta | -0.3% -0.3σ | -3.5% -1.4σ | +3.2% +0.4σ | +17.0% |
| Momentum | -0.7% -0.7σ | -3.0% -1.7σ | +1.4% +0.1σ | +16.8% |
Also
- Existing Home Sales 3.99M (3.95M expected)
- Existing Home Sales MoM 1.5% (-0.3% expected)
- Reported today: C beat (2.85 vs 2.65); DPZ beat (4.6 vs 4.36); GS beat (17.01 vs 12.86) +4
- Regional Banks basket -10.9% vs S&P over 20 sessions
- Optical Interconnect basket +9.0% vs S&P over 20 sessions
- Nasdaq Futures Fall as Global AI Selloff Intensifies — WSJ
- Treasury, Eurozone Yields Fall as Markets Look to U.S. — WSJ
Breadth, leadership, revisions, realized vol and the baskets, every day: the dashboard. Explore correlations →. Headlines are quoted from their publishers for context.
Tomorrow · Oct 14
- Wednesday: Core Inflation Rate YoY (Sep), consensus 2.5%.
- Wednesday: Core Inflation Rate MoM (Sep), consensus 0.2%.
- Wednesday: CPI s.a (Sep), consensus 335.8.
- Reporting Wednesday: BAC, MS, BLK, PGR and 2 more.
The narrative in this brief is drafted by an AI model from Factor Watch's computed data and checked against it, but it can still be wrong — verify anything before you act on it.