Market snapshot
In brief
The story
The week. The US Energy Complex basket, 21 names, finished the week 4.3% behind the S&P, a z of -1.2 and the 13th percentile of the trailing year. The refiners did the damage: Marathon Petroleum -7%, Phillips 66 -6% and Valero -6% together account for 26% of the move, at -0.40, -0.36 and -0.35 points. CNBC reported oil fell on optimism over a potential diplomatic solution to the Iran conflict.
The tape. The S&P 500 closed at 7,742.09, up 0.49% on the day and 1.1% on the week, but only 0.2% over 20 sessions. Beneath that, 28% of members sit above their 50-day average against 54% a month ago; the 20-session change is at the 14th percentile since 2020. Some 49% are above the 200-day. The VIX fell 5.1% to 14.87 and the 10-year ended at 5.17%, down a basis point; the WSJ headlined the bond selloff pausing as stocks edged higher.
The baskets. AI Displacement Risk lost 4.0% to the S&P on the week, with CDW -7%, Cognizant -4% and FactSet -4% making 77% of it. Over 20 sessions Space Economy is -7.6% (Leidos and RTX both -11%), Payments & Fintech -7.3% (Jack Henry -13%, FIS and Fiserv -12%) and Regional Banks -6.4%. Memory & Storage is +10.8%, on Sandisk +20% and Micron +16%.
The correlations. Capital Markets Cycle and Managed Care & Health Insurers now read r=-0.06 on 60 sessions of daily benchmark-relative returns to September 25, from r=+0.27 in the window ending August 27, a change of -0.33 coefficient points across overlapping windows. The 20-session figure is r=+0.04 and the one-year r=+0.13.
Who did it · 26% of the move in these names
| Name | Weight | 5d | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|
| MPC Marathon Petroleum | 4.8% | -7% | -0.40pp |
| PSX Phillips 66 | 4.8% | -6% | -0.36pp |
| VLO Valero Energy | 4.8% | -6% | -0.35pp |
By sector: Energy cost 4.0pp.
The board · factors vs S&P 500, relative return with z vs the trailing year, sorted by the week
| Factor | 1D | 5D | 20D | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (computed) absolute | +0.5% +0.5σ | +1.1% +0.5σ | +0.2% -0.3σ | +13.5% |
| Quality | +0.1% +0.1σ | +1.4% +1.8σ | +1.6% +0.9σ | +5.7% |
| High beta | -0.3% -0.3σ | +2.7% +0.9σ | +4.5% +0.7σ | +19.7% |
| Momentum | -0.0% -0.1σ | +1.8% +0.8σ | +3.8% +0.7σ | +19.8% |
| Low volatility | -0.2% -0.1σ | -2.1% -0.8σ | -3.7% -0.7σ | -9.0% |
| Size | +0.0% +0.0σ | -2.4% -1.2σ | -6.4% -1.8σ | -3.5% |
| Dividend yield | -0.3% -0.3σ | -3.1% -1.4σ | -5.8% -1.5σ | -0.4% |
| Value | +0.2% +0.2σ | -2.8% -1.5σ | -3.8% -1.3σ | +1.0% |
Also
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment 48.1 (47.6 expected)
- Durable Goods Orders MoM 0% (-0.4% expected)
- Memory & Storage basket +10.8% vs S&P over 20 sessions
- Defense & Aerospace basket -9.5% vs S&P over 20 sessions
- Capital Markets Cycle × Managed Care & Health Insurers: 60-session correlation of daily returns minus the S&P 500 is r=-0.06 (60 paired sessions), versus r=+0.27 (60 paired sessions) for the 60-session period ending 2026-08-27, 20 sessions earlier. Factors use long portfolios.
- Stocks Climb Back To Par — WSJ
- Bond Selloff Pauses, Stocks Edge Higher as Market Sentiment Cautiously Improves — WSJ
Breadth, leadership, revisions, realized vol and the baskets, every day: the dashboard. Explore correlations →. Headlines are quoted from their publishers for context.
Next session · Sep 28
- September so far: High beta leads the quilt (+6.1%); the S&P sits 4th of 8.
The narrative in this brief is drafted by an AI model from Factor Watch's computed data and checked against it, but it can still be wrong — verify anything before you act on it.