Market snapshot
In brief
The story
The move. The AI Infrastructure Leaders basket, 22 names, ended the week 7.6% ahead of the S&P, the 89th percentile of the trailing year. Dell rose 26% for 1.17pp of that, Corning 16% and Teradyne 14%; the three account for 31% of the move and Technology for 7.51pp. The narrower baskets ran further: Memory & Storage was up 9.9% on the week on Sandisk +15%, Micron +10% and Seagate +8%, and Optical Interconnect up 8.6% on Corning, Lumentum +14% and Coherent +12%. The basket's 60-session relative-return correlation with the High beta long book is r=+0.95, the highest of 595 pairs, down 0.01 points from 20 sessions earlier over overlapping windows.
The books. Quality's long-short spread is 3.6% behind the S&P over 20 sessions, z -2.4 and the 1st percentile of the trailing year, in the sixth session of the run. The damage is on the short side: Moderna +124% cost 1.24pp, with Sandisk +39%, Robinhood +22% and Lumentum +21% also short; Lululemon -21% is the long-leg name. Healthcare took 1.51pp and Industrials 1.20pp. The spread's 20-day realized vol, 10.9%, sits at the 97th percentile of the year. In Momentum, Casey's fell 14.2% on the day after reporting EPS of 7.37 against 6.78 expected.
The market. The S&P closed at 7,637.70, down 0.47%, with the VIX up 4.7% to 16.46. The 10-year rose 3bp to 4.83%; Barron's reported yields at new highs after a $6 billion Treasury buyback announcement. Only 38% of the index is above its 50-day average, from 64% a month ago, a 20-session change at the 13th percentile since 2020. Housing Chain is 9.2% behind the S&P over 20 sessions, led by Builders FirstSource -18% and Lennox -13%, and AI Displacement Risk lost 8.2% on the week, with Gartner -11%. Thursday brings August PPI, existing home sales and results from Oracle, Adobe and Copart.
Who did it · 31% of the move in these names
| Name | Weight | 5d | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|
| DELL Dell Technologies | 4.5% | +26% | +1.17pp |
| GLW Corning Inc. | 4.5% | +16% | +0.71pp |
| TER Teradyne | 4.5% | +14% | +0.65pp |
By sector: Technology added 7.5pp; Industrials added 0.1pp.
The board · factors vs S&P 500, relative return with z vs the trailing year, sorted by the week
| Factor | 1D | 5D | 20D | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (computed) absolute | -0.5% -0.7σ | +0.2% -0.1σ | -1.0% -0.8σ | +12.0% |
| High beta | +0.4% +0.3σ | +4.5% +1.6σ | +2.2% +0.2σ | +17.2% |
| Momentum | +0.5% +0.4σ | +3.3% +1.5σ | +2.5% +0.4σ | +17.7% |
| Quality | +0.3% +0.7σ | +0.4% +0.6σ | +0.1% -0.1σ | +3.9% |
| Value | +0.0% +0.0σ | -0.3% -0.2σ | +0.4% -0.1σ | +5.7% |
| Low volatility | -0.1% -0.0σ | -1.2% -0.5σ | -0.4% +0.1σ | -5.7% |
| Dividend yield | -0.7% -0.7σ | -1.8% -0.9σ | -0.3% -0.1σ | +4.5% |
| Size | -0.8% -0.9σ | -2.5% -1.3σ | -2.3% -0.7σ | +0.2% |
Also
- Reported today: COO beat (1.15 vs 1.12)
- Memory & Storage basket +20.5% vs S&P over 20 sessions
- Travel & Experiences basket -10.6% vs S&P over 20 sessions
- U.S. — WSJ
- Readers Respond to Audit and AI Advice; More Trade Disruptions Ahead — WSJ
Breadth, leadership, revisions, realized vol and the baskets, every day: the dashboard. Explore correlations →. Headlines are quoted from their publishers for context.
Tomorrow · Sep 10
- Thursday: Producer Price Index MoM (Aug), consensus 0.4%.
- Thursday: Existing Home Sales (Aug), consensus 3.98M.
- Reporting Thursday: ORCL, ADBE, CPRT.
The narrative in this brief is drafted by an AI model from Factor Watch's computed data and checked against it, but it can still be wrong — verify anything before you act on it.